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Mostly “Fire Geoff Collins”, some reminiscing, maybe bourbon or other distractions
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<blockquote data-quote="CuseJacket" data-source="post: 820415" data-attributes="member: 274"><p>I enjoy your opinions at all times. To your point, some might not like the timing or source of the perspective, but I greatly appreciate it.</p><p></p><p>There's two data points re: your projection of recruiting rankings that I greatly disagree with that are fundamental premises worth agreeing on, otherwise we'll never agree on the takeaways:</p><p>1) You attribute the 2019 class to Collins. He was in fact hired less than two months before the 2019 signing day. We can parse that apart, but I think it's fair that he does not own the final ranking of that class.</p><p>2) That leaves 3 years of data, two of which agree with my point. The class that does not agree/adhere with the top 30 principle was 2021 which was intentionally augmented by a record number of portal transfers. In other words, the HS ranking was an outlier with a clear and decisive reason. TBD on relative contribution of those transfers.</p><p></p><p>So, if you can come around to us looking more like a top 30 recruiting ceiling, what 'expected value' should we expect with top 30 classes? I would say top 30 results on average, or thereabouts. Regardless of scheme. To me that leaves open the door to upper-middle ACC and special seasons. Only in the last 10 years or so could a team finish as ACC runner-up and still make an Orange Bowl. You and we observed that first-hand with our respective squads.</p><p></p><p>Do you agree with my reframing of recruiting? And if so, does that change your opinion of 'expected value'? I still agree that there's a hurdle to overcome to be elite, and by no means am I saying that top 30 gets us near elite. But to win the Coastal does not require 'elite' based on its current formation.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="CuseJacket, post: 820415, member: 274"] I enjoy your opinions at all times. To your point, some might not like the timing or source of the perspective, but I greatly appreciate it. There's two data points re: your projection of recruiting rankings that I greatly disagree with that are fundamental premises worth agreeing on, otherwise we'll never agree on the takeaways: 1) You attribute the 2019 class to Collins. He was in fact hired less than two months before the 2019 signing day. We can parse that apart, but I think it's fair that he does not own the final ranking of that class. 2) That leaves 3 years of data, two of which agree with my point. The class that does not agree/adhere with the top 30 principle was 2021 which was intentionally augmented by a record number of portal transfers. In other words, the HS ranking was an outlier with a clear and decisive reason. TBD on relative contribution of those transfers. So, if you can come around to us looking more like a top 30 recruiting ceiling, what 'expected value' should we expect with top 30 classes? I would say top 30 results on average, or thereabouts. Regardless of scheme. To me that leaves open the door to upper-middle ACC and special seasons. Only in the last 10 years or so could a team finish as ACC runner-up and still make an Orange Bowl. You and we observed that first-hand with our respective squads. Do you agree with my reframing of recruiting? And if so, does that change your opinion of 'expected value'? I still agree that there's a hurdle to overcome to be elite, and by no means am I saying that top 30 gets us near elite. But to win the Coastal does not require 'elite' based on its current formation. [/QUOTE]
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Mostly “Fire Geoff Collins”, some reminiscing, maybe bourbon or other distractions
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