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Mike Bobinski at Lunch Bunch
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<blockquote data-quote="GTpdm" data-source="post: 70573" data-attributes="member: 1451"><p>Truth be told, I set up a spreadsheet and cherry-picked a mortality rate that would help my little joke along—and overlooked some relevant statistical issues along the way. But then again, if you look realistically at the numbers my contrived stats are not that far off the mark, in terms of what they ultimately predict. If you take into account the fact that the <u>current</u> 40k "geezer" alumni are a population that by definition stopped growing in 1999, and guess that they have been decaying since then at a 2-3% rate, you come up with the number of about 60k to 64k geezer alumni in 1999. If you track <u>that</u> number back, with the same assumed 2-3% attrition rate and a fixed 1900-per-year accumulation rate, you would predict an age for Georgia Tech of something like 200 years (at 2%) to 100 years (at 3%) to end up with 64k living alumni in 1999 (and thus 40k geezer alumni at present). It is surprising how often you can daisy-chain together some individually unrealistic guesses to get a reasonably accurate ballpark result (just google "fermi calculations").</p><p></p><p>I was dubious about the "50% whipper-snapper" claim at first, but it really does fit with even the crudest estimates you might make—and surprisingly, it does not require a "radical" increase in our graduation rate. You just have to realize the for the past 15 years, the geezer alumni population has been decaying at about 250-400 people per year, while the whipper-snappers have been growing at about 2500 people per year. Play around with that a bit, and a 50-50 geezer-to-whippersnapper ratio is completely reasonable. (And you kids get off'n my damn lawn...ehhhh...damned bursitis...)</p><p></p><p>And, Hell Yeah! I'm a super math-nerd. (Gotta be one, if you are going to make a career in physics) No apologies there... <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite159" alt=":vulcan:" title="Vulcan :vulcan:" loading="lazy" data-shortname=":vulcan:" /></p><p></p><p>Go Jackets! THWG!</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GTpdm, post: 70573, member: 1451"] Truth be told, I set up a spreadsheet and cherry-picked a mortality rate that would help my little joke along—and overlooked some relevant statistical issues along the way. But then again, if you look realistically at the numbers my contrived stats are not that far off the mark, in terms of what they ultimately predict. If you take into account the fact that the [U]current[/U] 40k "geezer" alumni are a population that by definition stopped growing in 1999, and guess that they have been decaying since then at a 2-3% rate, you come up with the number of about 60k to 64k geezer alumni in 1999. If you track [U]that[/U] number back, with the same assumed 2-3% attrition rate and a fixed 1900-per-year accumulation rate, you would predict an age for Georgia Tech of something like 200 years (at 2%) to 100 years (at 3%) to end up with 64k living alumni in 1999 (and thus 40k geezer alumni at present). It is surprising how often you can daisy-chain together some individually unrealistic guesses to get a reasonably accurate ballpark result (just google "fermi calculations"). I was dubious about the "50% whipper-snapper" claim at first, but it really does fit with even the crudest estimates you might make—and surprisingly, it does not require a "radical" increase in our graduation rate. You just have to realize the for the past 15 years, the geezer alumni population has been decaying at about 250-400 people per year, while the whipper-snappers have been growing at about 2500 people per year. Play around with that a bit, and a 50-50 geezer-to-whippersnapper ratio is completely reasonable. (And you kids get off'n my damn lawn...ehhhh...damned bursitis...) And, Hell Yeah! I'm a super math-nerd. (Gotta be one, if you are going to make a career in physics) No apologies there... :vulcan: Go Jackets! THWG! [/QUOTE]
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