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Is there "another level" of football?
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<blockquote data-quote="Big Philly" data-source="post: 494914" data-attributes="member: 1771"><p>You shouldn't be surprised when the result conforms to the domain of analysis. A different system, the Elo ranking system is built on an assumption of normally distributed skill, so when the results come out looking pretty normally distributed it's not interesting to say "chess skill looks pretty normally distributed." (It's interesting to look at the deviation from normal)</p><p></p><p>Continuing with the ELO analogy, even though it is smooth it makes sense to talk about "levels" or "the next level" because they are relative rankings, a predictor of the result. Groups apply labels, like "Expert" to ranges of values 100 points wide. An opponent 100 points better than you is expected to beat you ~60% of the time. To get "on their level" you need to learn and do what they do.</p><p></p><p>An interesting line of questioning is "What does a model team that beats us 60% of the time look like? Followed by, what does it cost to create such a team?" If we did that then we would be on their level, those games would be coin flips... and we would still lose the majority of games to Clemson, Georgia, and Miami.</p><p></p><p>From where we are right now the simplest move is the same that it's been for the last 11 years, something that results in "playing above average defense", which we have done once in the last 11 years. Not even Top 25 defense, just above average. A comparable school, recruiting-ranking wise, that is punching way above their weight the last two years in FEI defensive performance is Iowa State. Matt Campbell/John Heacock took over at Iowa State in 2016 and their first year's defense was godawful. Worse than any defense we've had in the last 11 years. The last two years Iowa State has gone bowling by outperforming on defense (Rank 103 -> Rank 32 -> Rank 15). If we had Iowa State's defense paired with our offense, statistically, we would be in the ACC Championship game, no sweat. That would be some serious schematic and coaching alchemy, statistically we would be a team like Notre Dame, Washington, Mississippi State, or Missouri. With this range you can see it still matters <em>who specifically</em> do you have on your schedule? Mississippi State and Missouri have strong teams and a bunch of losses because their schedules are both Top 10 difficulty.</p><p></p><p>We wait with bated breath to see how CNW's defense plays out. Looking at median performance it's worse than last year, but with the variance of being borderline-top-ten at forcing turnovers and putting the ball back in the hands of our offense we are going bowling.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Big Philly, post: 494914, member: 1771"] You shouldn't be surprised when the result conforms to the domain of analysis. A different system, the Elo ranking system is built on an assumption of normally distributed skill, so when the results come out looking pretty normally distributed it's not interesting to say "chess skill looks pretty normally distributed." (It's interesting to look at the deviation from normal) Continuing with the ELO analogy, even though it is smooth it makes sense to talk about "levels" or "the next level" because they are relative rankings, a predictor of the result. Groups apply labels, like "Expert" to ranges of values 100 points wide. An opponent 100 points better than you is expected to beat you ~60% of the time. To get "on their level" you need to learn and do what they do. An interesting line of questioning is "What does a model team that beats us 60% of the time look like? Followed by, what does it cost to create such a team?" If we did that then we would be on their level, those games would be coin flips... and we would still lose the majority of games to Clemson, Georgia, and Miami. From where we are right now the simplest move is the same that it's been for the last 11 years, something that results in "playing above average defense", which we have done once in the last 11 years. Not even Top 25 defense, just above average. A comparable school, recruiting-ranking wise, that is punching way above their weight the last two years in FEI defensive performance is Iowa State. Matt Campbell/John Heacock took over at Iowa State in 2016 and their first year's defense was godawful. Worse than any defense we've had in the last 11 years. The last two years Iowa State has gone bowling by outperforming on defense (Rank 103 -> Rank 32 -> Rank 15). If we had Iowa State's defense paired with our offense, statistically, we would be in the ACC Championship game, no sweat. That would be some serious schematic and coaching alchemy, statistically we would be a team like Notre Dame, Washington, Mississippi State, or Missouri. With this range you can see it still matters [I]who specifically[/I] do you have on your schedule? Mississippi State and Missouri have strong teams and a bunch of losses because their schedules are both Top 10 difficulty. We wait with bated breath to see how CNW's defense plays out. Looking at median performance it's worse than last year, but with the variance of being borderline-top-ten at forcing turnovers and putting the ball back in the hands of our offense we are going bowling. [/QUOTE]
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