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<blockquote data-quote="JorgeJonas" data-source="post: 195994" data-attributes="member: 2171"><p>I'm not predicting regression to the mean next year. That's the gambler's fallacy. I do think over a large enough sample, it'll come out to around .500. However, no, I don't believe <em>any</em> coach means we're a 7-8 win team a year. We could hire a terrible coach and be a 2 win team. We might one day find a coach who can elevate the program beyond where it is today, but I don't know who that coach is, or he exists. So, yes, barring some sort of structural change, I do think most years we will find ourselves in the middle of the pack. The key - for me, at least - is that the coach we have give us the boom years. This is a school that has had four ten win seasons since 1957. Alabama has had four since 2011. </p><p></p><p>As for Johnson, I'd actually say he's done a good job of keeping us out of one score games. We played 7 in 12 games this year, but only 6 in 14 last year. And in the games decided by more than eight points over the past two years, we are 10-3. I'm not sure what your expectation here is, though.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="JorgeJonas, post: 195994, member: 2171"] I'm not predicting regression to the mean next year. That's the gambler's fallacy. I do think over a large enough sample, it'll come out to around .500. However, no, I don't believe [I]any[/I] coach means we're a 7-8 win team a year. We could hire a terrible coach and be a 2 win team. We might one day find a coach who can elevate the program beyond where it is today, but I don't know who that coach is, or he exists. So, yes, barring some sort of structural change, I do think most years we will find ourselves in the middle of the pack. The key - for me, at least - is that the coach we have give us the boom years. This is a school that has had four ten win seasons since 1957. Alabama has had four since 2011. As for Johnson, I'd actually say he's done a good job of keeping us out of one score games. We played 7 in 12 games this year, but only 6 in 14 last year. And in the games decided by more than eight points over the past two years, we are 10-3. I'm not sure what your expectation here is, though. [/QUOTE]
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