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<blockquote data-quote="Augusta_Jacket" data-source="post: 195814" data-attributes="member: 1191"><p>While I am not a believer in "luck," per se, I am a believer in stats. Stats bear out that teams usually finish .500 or so in one TD games. (8 point differential) Vegas can realistically predict regression to mean based off your record in those games. For instance, in 2009 we went 5-1 in those games, IIRC. We then had a couple of years where we lost a lot more one possession games than we won. In 2014, we were 3-3 in those games. This year, we were 1-6 in those games. Regression to the mean would be an improvement for us next year. So yes, I think you can separate a coach from the W-L record, to a degree. This year was obviously a very bad year, but I think we'll see much improvement next year.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Augusta_Jacket, post: 195814, member: 1191"] While I am not a believer in "luck," per se, I am a believer in stats. Stats bear out that teams usually finish .500 or so in one TD games. (8 point differential) Vegas can realistically predict regression to mean based off your record in those games. For instance, in 2009 we went 5-1 in those games, IIRC. We then had a couple of years where we lost a lot more one possession games than we won. In 2014, we were 3-3 in those games. This year, we were 1-6 in those games. Regression to the mean would be an improvement for us next year. So yes, I think you can separate a coach from the W-L record, to a degree. This year was obviously a very bad year, but I think we'll see much improvement next year. [/QUOTE]
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