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I have a gut feeling.
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<blockquote data-quote="GTNavyNuke" data-source="post: 888166" data-attributes="member: 322"><p>I expect more of the same and hope for something better. It can't get worse can it?</p><p></p><p>Anyway, here's what was "expected" and delivered from someone (J Howell <a href="http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm" target="_blank">http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm</a> ) who has a system that is at least data based. </p><p></p><p>These are predicted % likelihood to win on a neutral field against the "average" D1 team (about 130 of them).</p><p></p><p>2019. Preseason .619. Post season .337</p><p>2020. Preseason .478. Post season .370</p><p>2021. Preseason .424. Post season .392</p><p>2022. Preseason .408. Post season ?</p><p></p><p>So our expected performance is dropping while our actual performance is improving. At this rate, we'll ...... never mind.</p><p></p><p>At some point I'll do another scatter chart like I did years ago showing how well his predictions have been. He has to "make the books balance" so one team's improvement is another's decline.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GTNavyNuke, post: 888166, member: 322"] I expect more of the same and hope for something better. It can't get worse can it? Anyway, here's what was "expected" and delivered from someone (J Howell [URL]http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm[/URL] ) who has a system that is at least data based. These are predicted % likelihood to win on a neutral field against the "average" D1 team (about 130 of them). 2019. Preseason .619. Post season .337 2020. Preseason .478. Post season .370 2021. Preseason .424. Post season .392 2022. Preseason .408. Post season ? So our expected performance is dropping while our actual performance is improving. At this rate, we'll ...... never mind. At some point I'll do another scatter chart like I did years ago showing how well his predictions have been. He has to "make the books balance" so one team's improvement is another's decline. [/QUOTE]
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