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How 'Should' Tech Do in Recruiting Rank - Analysis
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<blockquote data-quote="takethepoints" data-source="post: 510436" data-attributes="member: 265"><p>I agree with the analysis and I think we can do it. <em>Iff</em> the supposed pool of 4* and 5* offensive recruits that didn't commit to Tech if the last 11 years because of Paul's offensive system <em>actually</em> exists. </p><p></p><p>As I said in response to one of your previous posts, we are now committed to a classic natural experiment to see if that is true. Previous shifts - from Chan to Paul - don't support the assertion, but college football has changed since then and perhaps that will make a difference. One thing = we may have to wait a couple of years to see. Recruiting this year is already set. Recruiting next year will probably be unrepresentative. If you go to Vegas and win $100K, you could do a lot of different things: you could invest the money, give it to your family, gloat over it like Mr. Burns, or blow it at the track. One thing is certain, however: your behavior for this year <em>will</em> change and won't be representative of how you will behave in the future. How Coach does next year in recruiting will still be influenced by the shock of the change and wii almost certainly not be indicative of future trends. We'll just have to wait to get a reading on what's happening.</p><p></p><p>I'm not so much preaching to you here as to the legion of fans out there who will go ape if we have a good recruiting year in 2020. I hope that happens and that it holds up, but that will depend on long run trends and whether a change in offensive system will lead to a "regime shift" in our recruiting, As this thread has shown, recruiting success seems to depend on resource commitments more then anything else. If we see a sea change in that then the causal picture sketched above becomes confounded and a more complex analysis will be needed to parse out what is going on.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="takethepoints, post: 510436, member: 265"] I agree with the analysis and I think we can do it. [I]Iff[/I] the supposed pool of 4* and 5* offensive recruits that didn't commit to Tech if the last 11 years because of Paul's offensive system [I]actually[/I] exists. As I said in response to one of your previous posts, we are now committed to a classic natural experiment to see if that is true. Previous shifts - from Chan to Paul - don't support the assertion, but college football has changed since then and perhaps that will make a difference. One thing = we may have to wait a couple of years to see. Recruiting this year is already set. Recruiting next year will probably be unrepresentative. If you go to Vegas and win $100K, you could do a lot of different things: you could invest the money, give it to your family, gloat over it like Mr. Burns, or blow it at the track. One thing is certain, however: your behavior for this year [I]will[/I] change and won't be representative of how you will behave in the future. How Coach does next year in recruiting will still be influenced by the shock of the change and wii almost certainly not be indicative of future trends. We'll just have to wait to get a reading on what's happening. I'm not so much preaching to you here as to the legion of fans out there who will go ape if we have a good recruiting year in 2020. I hope that happens and that it holds up, but that will depend on long run trends and whether a change in offensive system will lead to a "regime shift" in our recruiting, As this thread has shown, recruiting success seems to depend on resource commitments more then anything else. If we see a sea change in that then the causal picture sketched above becomes confounded and a more complex analysis will be needed to parse out what is going on. [/QUOTE]
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