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<blockquote data-quote="4shotB" data-source="post: 924373" data-attributes="member: 844"><p>I tend to agree with you here and think the moneyball stuff is overly simplified and romanticized due to (like so many other things) Hollywood and a movie. Consider this paraphrased quote, taken from John Bogle's book, 'The Little Book of Common Sense Investing" (I highly recommend it if you are interested in analytics and investing), Wiley and Sons Publisher, copyright 2017. "it takes between 20 and 800 years of data to prove statistically that a fund manager is skillful and not just lucky. To have a 95% confidence level, you would have to have a 1,000 years of data. For a 75% confidence interval, the sample size must be between 16 and 115 years." The source of this quote is Ted Aronson. See page 137 for the exact quote.</p><p> </p><p>My point...I think there is a gross oversimplification to this 'moneyball" process and GT football. I think the idea that we can hire a savant of football (think John Bogle or Warren Buffett) and let him "think" our way to gridiron greatness appeals to our love for problem solvers and thinkers. We love to think we can outwit our opponents at the "lowly" football factories and not follow models that have proven to work. One logic error I find in this thought process is no one seems to know how to identify who these people are. We do not have hundreds of years of data to work with. we just scrapped the "Music Man" approach to greatness....thank goodness.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="4shotB, post: 924373, member: 844"] I tend to agree with you here and think the moneyball stuff is overly simplified and romanticized due to (like so many other things) Hollywood and a movie. Consider this paraphrased quote, taken from John Bogle's book, 'The Little Book of Common Sense Investing" (I highly recommend it if you are interested in analytics and investing), Wiley and Sons Publisher, copyright 2017. "it takes between 20 and 800 years of data to prove statistically that a fund manager is skillful and not just lucky. To have a 95% confidence level, you would have to have a 1,000 years of data. For a 75% confidence interval, the sample size must be between 16 and 115 years." The source of this quote is Ted Aronson. See page 137 for the exact quote. My point...I think there is a gross oversimplification to this 'moneyball" process and GT football. I think the idea that we can hire a savant of football (think John Bogle or Warren Buffett) and let him "think" our way to gridiron greatness appeals to our love for problem solvers and thinkers. We love to think we can outwit our opponents at the "lowly" football factories and not follow models that have proven to work. One logic error I find in this thought process is no one seems to know how to identify who these people are. We do not have hundreds of years of data to work with. we just scrapped the "Music Man" approach to greatness....thank goodness. [/QUOTE]
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