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Harvin Questionable
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<blockquote data-quote="bravejason" data-source="post: 343802" data-attributes="member: 1069"><p>CPJ has commented once, similar to what another poster said, that if you miss the conversion you are chasing the point the rest of the game. </p><p></p><p>Personally, I think the issue with going for the conversion all the time is that it does not gain enough compared to taking the point. If you consider that a point after mimics a 3rd and short scenario (or 4th and short in the case of CPJ), then your long term average is going to max out at about 55% or so even if you are awesome at it. So the best you are going to do long term per game basis is score an extra fractional point. And that 55% conversion rate isn't consistent either. We've seen games where 3rd down conversions by the offense were practically guaranteed and games where the offense couldn't buy a 3rd conversion if it paid with bitcoin. In some games you may go 4 for 5 and others go 1 for 4. In the former, you net yourself 3 extra points and in the latter you cost yourself 2 points. Is that enough to make a difference in a game? I don't knw that one can say because the game scores swing wildly. One week you win 25-24 and the next week you lose 35-21. In the first game, converting 4/5 versus 1/4 is the difference between winning and losing and in the second game, it makes no difference. </p><p></p><p>While a team may be able to score more points going for the 2 points all the time, I don't believe the net gain is sufficient enough to outweigh the added scoring volatility. I think the current strategy of taking the PAT and going for the conversion if the game situation so dictates is a prudent strategy.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="bravejason, post: 343802, member: 1069"] CPJ has commented once, similar to what another poster said, that if you miss the conversion you are chasing the point the rest of the game. Personally, I think the issue with going for the conversion all the time is that it does not gain enough compared to taking the point. If you consider that a point after mimics a 3rd and short scenario (or 4th and short in the case of CPJ), then your long term average is going to max out at about 55% or so even if you are awesome at it. So the best you are going to do long term per game basis is score an extra fractional point. And that 55% conversion rate isn't consistent either. We've seen games where 3rd down conversions by the offense were practically guaranteed and games where the offense couldn't buy a 3rd conversion if it paid with bitcoin. In some games you may go 4 for 5 and others go 1 for 4. In the former, you net yourself 3 extra points and in the latter you cost yourself 2 points. Is that enough to make a difference in a game? I don't knw that one can say because the game scores swing wildly. One week you win 25-24 and the next week you lose 35-21. In the first game, converting 4/5 versus 1/4 is the difference between winning and losing and in the second game, it makes no difference. While a team may be able to score more points going for the 2 points all the time, I don't believe the net gain is sufficient enough to outweigh the added scoring volatility. I think the current strategy of taking the PAT and going for the conversion if the game situation so dictates is a prudent strategy. [/QUOTE]
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