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Great interview with CPJ
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<blockquote data-quote="GTNavyNuke" data-source="post: 39075" data-attributes="member: 322"><p>Thanks, I thought about rush data later. You are exactly right. And this 71% is why I think we should go for 2 almost every time. If we average 1.4 points per conversion, that beats the 1. Near the end of a game when 1 would win it and a few other situations, I'd go for 1. Otherwise 2.</p><p></p><p>FWIW, other teams converted against our D 72% (13 of 18) when rushing on 3rd and 1-3. Their passing efficiency in conversion was only 7 of 16 (44%) so rushing is the way to go.</p><p></p><p>Looking at the other rush data for 3rd and distance we see what I felt was the case - you know when we are more likely to pass:</p><p>3 rd & 4-6; pass 18 times and rush 20 times -1/2 time pass</p><p>3rd & 7-9; pass 21 times and rush 10 times - 2/3 times pass</p><p>3rd & 10+; pass 27 times and rush 13 - 2/3 pass</p><p>4th; pass 5 times and rush 13 times - 1/4 pass</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GTNavyNuke, post: 39075, member: 322"] Thanks, I thought about rush data later. You are exactly right. And this 71% is why I think we should go for 2 almost every time. If we average 1.4 points per conversion, that beats the 1. Near the end of a game when 1 would win it and a few other situations, I'd go for 1. Otherwise 2. FWIW, other teams converted against our D 72% (13 of 18) when rushing on 3rd and 1-3. Their passing efficiency in conversion was only 7 of 16 (44%) so rushing is the way to go. Looking at the other rush data for 3rd and distance we see what I felt was the case - you know when we are more likely to pass: 3 rd & 4-6; pass 18 times and rush 20 times -1/2 time pass 3rd & 7-9; pass 21 times and rush 10 times - 2/3 times pass 3rd & 10+; pass 27 times and rush 13 - 2/3 pass 4th; pass 5 times and rush 13 times - 1/4 pass [/QUOTE]
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