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Geoff Collins as a HC - Full Season Data
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<blockquote data-quote="Vespidae" data-source="post: 631800" data-attributes="member: 2957"><p>I agree with your characterizing metrics as predictive or descriptive. Here's the rub on those efficiency metrics though ...</p><p></p><p>If you think about football as Expected Value per Possession, the the more possessions a team has, the more likely they would converge towards their long-term EV/PP. (That's just statistics.) So if Clemson has an EV/PP of 4.25 and Tech has an EV/PP of 2.5, Tech would almost always lose. </p><p></p><p>So, if you are a weaker team, you are best served by limiting the number of possessions to increase the variance in the result. In other words, play for the upset. (This is the same concept in poker and gambling in general.)</p><p></p><p>I looked at CGC's results last year at Temple and his team's were all over ... 9 possessions per game, 16 possessions per game ... so it's not possible for me to answer ... did the strategy work?</p><p></p><p>That's what I'm struggling to evaluate ... the effectiveness of the game plan itself. I don't think the FEI ratings do that, they describe, as you said ... but they don't help evaluate. Tech could beat Clemson 7-6 but show horrible FEI numbers.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Vespidae, post: 631800, member: 2957"] I agree with your characterizing metrics as predictive or descriptive. Here's the rub on those efficiency metrics though ... If you think about football as Expected Value per Possession, the the more possessions a team has, the more likely they would converge towards their long-term EV/PP. (That's just statistics.) So if Clemson has an EV/PP of 4.25 and Tech has an EV/PP of 2.5, Tech would almost always lose. So, if you are a weaker team, you are best served by limiting the number of possessions to increase the variance in the result. In other words, play for the upset. (This is the same concept in poker and gambling in general.) I looked at CGC's results last year at Temple and his team's were all over ... 9 possessions per game, 16 possessions per game ... so it's not possible for me to answer ... did the strategy work? That's what I'm struggling to evaluate ... the effectiveness of the game plan itself. I don't think the FEI ratings do that, they describe, as you said ... but they don't help evaluate. Tech could beat Clemson 7-6 but show horrible FEI numbers. [/QUOTE]
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Geoff Collins as a HC - Full Season Data
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