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General Investing and Economics Discussion - No Politics
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<blockquote data-quote="CuseJacket" data-source="post: 710254" data-attributes="member: 274"><p>One thing to keep in mind. The stock market is usually 1 year ahead of GDP in bear market recoveries. </p><p></p><p>In other words, if market speculation is typically 1 year out, then the bet that investors are making now is that the economy and GDP recover in a meaningful way by April 2021. Way oversimplified way of summarizing, but that's my interpretation of the data I've seen from past market corrections and what I've read.</p><p></p><p>Also, most of the GDP statistics I've seen published over the past 4 weeks generally annualize the impact of Covid, but the reality is the quarterly impact in Q2 and Q3 on their own are therefore 1/4 of actual impact. I say that to simply provide context when economists are predicting V-shape vs. U-Shape vs. L-shape recovery models.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="CuseJacket, post: 710254, member: 274"] One thing to keep in mind. The stock market is usually 1 year ahead of GDP in bear market recoveries. In other words, if market speculation is typically 1 year out, then the bet that investors are making now is that the economy and GDP recover in a meaningful way by April 2021. Way oversimplified way of summarizing, but that's my interpretation of the data I've seen from past market corrections and what I've read. Also, most of the GDP statistics I've seen published over the past 4 weeks generally annualize the impact of Covid, but the reality is the quarterly impact in Q2 and Q3 on their own are therefore 1/4 of actual impact. I say that to simply provide context when economists are predicting V-shape vs. U-Shape vs. L-shape recovery models. [/QUOTE]
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