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General Investing and Economics Discussion - No Politics
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<blockquote data-quote="Deleted member 2897" data-source="post: 708923"><p>The short answer is I don't know. The long answer is I don't know. <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite1" alt=":)" title="Smile :)" loading="lazy" data-shortname=":)" /> No matter how good the government's intentions, it is too big, bureaucratic, and slow to do anything meaningful. Look at where we are right now. We're about 6 weeks into the major breakout here and not a single American has gotten their money from the federal government. Many people haven't been able to even sign up for unemployment, as the systems are down 24x7. A tiny slice of businesses have gotten something. The Kennedy Center got a free $25m grant and the next day laid off all their musicians and is currently laying off the remaining several hundred of their employees. Most of these employees at businesses that are shut down or mostly shut down will have nothing to do, so entering into some complicated agreement where you don't know ultimately what the terms are and restrictions and you can't even get the money...to pay employees to do nothing isn't helpful.</p><p></p><p>The last time we did a stimulus, all it did was prolong the misery and they didn't do anything material other than pay off the big fat cats who were connected to the government (well connected alternative energy companies, big banks, other government agencies, etc.)</p><p></p><p>The Fed isn't supposed to be buying our own debt back with printed money, or corporate debt, or state and local debt. But they're getting around the rules by using intermediaries like Blackrock. I wouldn't be surprised to find out they've been doing the same thing to support the stock market. These are the worst economic conditions is nearly 100 years but the stock market is up like 35% from when Trump was elected. Our company laid off a few people here and there - if the economy turns around, they're not hiring any of them back immediately. They'll need to see sustained proof of a recovery and over utilization of the current workforce. Hiring new employees is extremely expensive. Companies have taken a huge hit, and they'll need to bolster back their reserve cash positions into a reasonable spot before many of them will return to hiring. That's at least my take on it, which is worth about as much as the paper this post was written on.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Deleted member 2897, post: 708923"] The short answer is I don't know. The long answer is I don't know. :) No matter how good the government's intentions, it is too big, bureaucratic, and slow to do anything meaningful. Look at where we are right now. We're about 6 weeks into the major breakout here and not a single American has gotten their money from the federal government. Many people haven't been able to even sign up for unemployment, as the systems are down 24x7. A tiny slice of businesses have gotten something. The Kennedy Center got a free $25m grant and the next day laid off all their musicians and is currently laying off the remaining several hundred of their employees. Most of these employees at businesses that are shut down or mostly shut down will have nothing to do, so entering into some complicated agreement where you don't know ultimately what the terms are and restrictions and you can't even get the money...to pay employees to do nothing isn't helpful. The last time we did a stimulus, all it did was prolong the misery and they didn't do anything material other than pay off the big fat cats who were connected to the government (well connected alternative energy companies, big banks, other government agencies, etc.) The Fed isn't supposed to be buying our own debt back with printed money, or corporate debt, or state and local debt. But they're getting around the rules by using intermediaries like Blackrock. I wouldn't be surprised to find out they've been doing the same thing to support the stock market. These are the worst economic conditions is nearly 100 years but the stock market is up like 35% from when Trump was elected. Our company laid off a few people here and there - if the economy turns around, they're not hiring any of them back immediately. They'll need to see sustained proof of a recovery and over utilization of the current workforce. Hiring new employees is extremely expensive. Companies have taken a huge hit, and they'll need to bolster back their reserve cash positions into a reasonable spot before many of them will return to hiring. That's at least my take on it, which is worth about as much as the paper this post was written on. [/QUOTE]
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