Home
Articles
Photos
Interviews
Forums
New posts
Search forums
Georgia Tech Recruiting
Dashboard
What's new
New posts
New profile posts
Latest activity
Chat
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
New posts
Search forums
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Home
Forums
General Topics
The Swarm Lounge
General Investing and Economics Discussion - No Politics
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="Deleted member 2897" data-source="post: 706464"><p>I keep assuming all $$$ are spent immediately, because I'm assuming the vast vast majority of the $2.3T will be spent by the end of September. Otherwise, what would be the point? The portion that's the money back to workers and the unemployment is the largest block - that's all going out in the next 3 months. The remaining part is loans and bailouts to companies. True, people may not use the loans, but I imagine the large company bailouts will take the money immediately. But that is indeed my speculation.</p><p>$250B - unemployment.</p><p>$300B - one time checks.</p><p>$500B - large company bailouts like post office, airlines, etc.</p><p>$150B - money straight to states.</p><p>$200B - to hospitals and what-not.</p><p>$50B - safety net increases.</p><p></p><p>That's well over $1T that should be spent completely in the next 3 months. We were running a $1T deficit. That makes about $2.5T right there, if you assume about $800B (one-third) of the package doesn't get spent by end of September.</p><p></p><p>The next piece of the puzzle is tax revenue. That's hard for me to guess. But if unemployment averages over 20% for the last 6 months of the fiscal year (The Fed forecasts a peak of 32%), thats a tax revenue reduction of 20% over those 6 months roughly. That's a $200B shortfall. Payroll taxes will also be reduced largely commensurate with that, which would be another $150B shortfall. If corporate taxes fell 6% in the great recession, I think a 15%-20% reduction (based off unemployment forecasts and what-not) in profits is a good guess. Across the last 6 months of the year would equate to another $30B shortfall. That's a total tax revenue shortfall in the final 6 months of about $400B.</p><p></p><p>If you add all that up, that's very roughly $3T. I'm guessing $4T, because the House is already working on another package, Trump just proposed a different one, and I think the plummet in tax revenue will be more pronounced than what I just listed. The Great Recession was a much more mild time than what we're experiencing, and total tax revenue to the government missed the original forecasts by $1T in 2009.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Deleted member 2897, post: 706464"] I keep assuming all $$$ are spent immediately, because I'm assuming the vast vast majority of the $2.3T will be spent by the end of September. Otherwise, what would be the point? The portion that's the money back to workers and the unemployment is the largest block - that's all going out in the next 3 months. The remaining part is loans and bailouts to companies. True, people may not use the loans, but I imagine the large company bailouts will take the money immediately. But that is indeed my speculation. $250B - unemployment. $300B - one time checks. $500B - large company bailouts like post office, airlines, etc. $150B - money straight to states. $200B - to hospitals and what-not. $50B - safety net increases. That's well over $1T that should be spent completely in the next 3 months. We were running a $1T deficit. That makes about $2.5T right there, if you assume about $800B (one-third) of the package doesn't get spent by end of September. The next piece of the puzzle is tax revenue. That's hard for me to guess. But if unemployment averages over 20% for the last 6 months of the fiscal year (The Fed forecasts a peak of 32%), thats a tax revenue reduction of 20% over those 6 months roughly. That's a $200B shortfall. Payroll taxes will also be reduced largely commensurate with that, which would be another $150B shortfall. If corporate taxes fell 6% in the great recession, I think a 15%-20% reduction (based off unemployment forecasts and what-not) in profits is a good guess. Across the last 6 months of the year would equate to another $30B shortfall. That's a total tax revenue shortfall in the final 6 months of about $400B. If you add all that up, that's very roughly $3T. I'm guessing $4T, because the House is already working on another package, Trump just proposed a different one, and I think the plummet in tax revenue will be more pronounced than what I just listed. The Great Recession was a much more mild time than what we're experiencing, and total tax revenue to the government missed the original forecasts by $1T in 2009. [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Who was Georgia Tech's starting QB in 2023?
Post reply
Home
Forums
General Topics
The Swarm Lounge
General Investing and Economics Discussion - No Politics
This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
Accept
Learn more…
Top