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The Swarm Lounge
General Investing and Economics Discussion - No Politics
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<blockquote data-quote="Deleted member 2897" data-source="post: 704382"><p>That last statistic actually enormously understates unemployment during the last cycle. Remember that unemployment only counts if you’re trying to find a job. There’s an “under employment” statistic that includes everyone who would work if they could find a job, but they’ve given up trying. That was in the high teens back then and took several years to get back close to 10%.</p><p></p><p>I lived in the Silicon Valley during the dot com explosion. A lot of those software companies are slightly immune to these things because they can sit on big bags of cash from fundraising. Even then, unemployment went from 1.2% in Santa Clara County (San Jose) to over 10%.</p><p></p><p>At the height of the Great Recession, we lost a net of around 700,000 jobs in a month. We could see 10x that if we keep this up. Let that sink in. For how terrible and severe the economy was back then, we could see 10x that monthly job loss. Now that’s my own guess, but we’re seeing weekly estimates way over 2,000,000 jobs nationally.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Deleted member 2897, post: 704382"] That last statistic actually enormously understates unemployment during the last cycle. Remember that unemployment only counts if you’re trying to find a job. There’s an “under employment” statistic that includes everyone who would work if they could find a job, but they’ve given up trying. That was in the high teens back then and took several years to get back close to 10%. I lived in the Silicon Valley during the dot com explosion. A lot of those software companies are slightly immune to these things because they can sit on big bags of cash from fundraising. Even then, unemployment went from 1.2% in Santa Clara County (San Jose) to over 10%. At the height of the Great Recession, we lost a net of around 700,000 jobs in a month. We could see 10x that if we keep this up. Let that sink in. For how terrible and severe the economy was back then, we could see 10x that monthly job loss. Now that’s my own guess, but we’re seeing weekly estimates way over 2,000,000 jobs nationally. [/QUOTE]
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