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Football Outsiders Stats and GT 2013 prediction
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<blockquote data-quote="AE 87" data-source="post: 7201" data-attributes="member: 195"><p><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/8/9/4587334/2013-georgia-tech-schedule-roster-preview" target="_blank">http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/8/9/4587334/2013-georgia-tech-schedule-roster-preview</a></p><p></p><p>Bill Connelly who does a lot with the S&P stats at Football Outsiders -- maybe he developed them?--ranks us at 32 as his 2013 projection. I've given his projected ACC rankings below. A few things stand out: (1) FSU and CU are both over-ranked in comparison to his projection of 19 and 20. (2) The top five coastal contenders all fall within 23-35. His statistical analysis supports our supposition that the coastal race will be tight.</p><p></p><p><u>A few interesting insights</u>:</p><p>1) He quantifies the confidence we have in our secondary by noting that we had a top 25 pass defense (PPP+) while having only a top 60 opponent-adjusted sack rate.</p><p></p><p>2) He quantifies the confidence we've had in our offense, noting that apart from the 2010 debacle, our offense has consistently ranked between 6 and 29 in F/+ (a Football Outsiders combined ranking): 29, 6, 49, 16, 22 from 2008 to 2012.</p><p></p><p>3) We have the potential for having a very good D. Building on the observation noted in (1) above, one of the comments that made me raise an eyebrow was this one: From my own look at the stats, I can say that 3rd Down conversion stood-out as an area of improvement after the first six games. I suspect that this improvement affected the stats he was looking at. Also Roof did have a very young and inexperienced secondary last year at Penn State. If he can get us to outstanding on standard downs and keep us very good on passing downs, our D could be pretty special.</p><p></p><p>Projected ACC rankings:</p><p>FSU 19</p><p>CU 20</p><p>VPI 23</p><p>d'oh U 25</p><p>UNC 29</p><p>GT 32</p><p>Pitt 35</p><p>Syracuse 54</p><p>NC St 61</p><p>BC 69</p><p>Virginia 71</p><p>WF 81</p><p>Maryland 83</p><p>Duke 88</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="AE 87, post: 7201, member: 195"] [url]http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/8/9/4587334/2013-georgia-tech-schedule-roster-preview[/url] Bill Connelly who does a lot with the S&P stats at Football Outsiders -- maybe he developed them?--ranks us at 32 as his 2013 projection. I've given his projected ACC rankings below. A few things stand out: (1) FSU and CU are both over-ranked in comparison to his projection of 19 and 20. (2) The top five coastal contenders all fall within 23-35. His statistical analysis supports our supposition that the coastal race will be tight. [U]A few interesting insights[/U]: 1) He quantifies the confidence we have in our secondary by noting that we had a top 25 pass defense (PPP+) while having only a top 60 opponent-adjusted sack rate. 2) He quantifies the confidence we've had in our offense, noting that apart from the 2010 debacle, our offense has consistently ranked between 6 and 29 in F/+ (a Football Outsiders combined ranking): 29, 6, 49, 16, 22 from 2008 to 2012. 3) We have the potential for having a very good D. Building on the observation noted in (1) above, one of the comments that made me raise an eyebrow was this one: From my own look at the stats, I can say that 3rd Down conversion stood-out as an area of improvement after the first six games. I suspect that this improvement affected the stats he was looking at. Also Roof did have a very young and inexperienced secondary last year at Penn State. If he can get us to outstanding on standard downs and keep us very good on passing downs, our D could be pretty special. Projected ACC rankings: FSU 19 CU 20 VPI 23 d'oh U 25 UNC 29 GT 32 Pitt 35 Syracuse 54 NC St 61 BC 69 Virginia 71 WF 81 Maryland 83 Duke 88 [/QUOTE]
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