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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 830567" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>Just a few stat/model based things.</p><p></p><p>For Sagarin (really simple, and pretty early in the season, still),</p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>GT Predictor</td><td>72.66</td></tr><tr><td>Duke Predictor</td><td>64.75</td></tr><tr><td>Diff (+3 pt Duke Home Field Advantage)</td><td>4.91</td></tr></table><p></p><p>So, a 5 point advantage to the good guys. Hope that holds.</p><p></p><p>Here's the last couple of years from Duke, for reference (from sports-reference.com)</p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th></th><th></th><th></th><th>Over</th><th>Over</th><th>Over</th><th>Over</th><th>Conf</th><th>Conf</th><th>Conf</th><th>Conf</th><th>SRS</th><th>SRS</th></tr><tr><td>Rk</td><td>Year</td><td>Conf</td><td>W</td><td>L</td><td>T</td><td>Pct</td><td>W</td><td>L</td><td>T</td><td>Pct</td><td>SRS</td><td>SOS</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>2021</td><td>ACC</td><td>3</td><td>2</td><td></td><td></td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>.000</td><td>-2.16</td><td>-5.96</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>2020</td><td>ACC</td><td>2</td><td>9</td><td>0</td><td>.182</td><td>1</td><td>9</td><td>0</td><td>.100</td><td>-12.88</td><td>-1.60</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>2019</td><td>ACC</td><td>5</td><td>7</td><td>0</td><td>.417</td><td>3</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>.375</td><td>0.11</td><td>2.03</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>2018</td><td>ACC</td><td>8</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>.615</td><td>3</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>.375</td><td>6.37</td><td>3.60</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>2017</td><td>ACC</td><td>7</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>.538</td><td>3</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>.375</td><td>7.23</td><td>3.23</td></tr></table><p></p><p></p><p>Provided by <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" target="_blank">CFB at Sports Reference</a>: <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/duke/index.html?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#duke" target="_blank">View Original Table</a></p><p>Generated 10/8/2021.</p><p></p><p>The SRS is a simple score, where in 2017 and 2018 Duke was about a TD above average, they were way below average last year, and a couple of points below average this year. (i.e. they're better this year than last, but they're not good). We're 6.6 to the positive this year.</p><p></p><p>Duke has a few scoring threats, but their main two are their RB (Durant) and their QB (Holmberg), and it's mainly their running back</p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th></th><th></th><th></th><th>Rush</th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th>Rece</th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th>Scri</th><th></th><th></th><th></th></tr><tr><td>Rk</td><td>Player</td><td>G</td><td>Att</td><td>Yds</td><td>Avg</td><td>TD</td><td>Rec</td><td>Yds</td><td>Avg</td><td>TD</td><td>Plays</td><td>Yds</td><td>Avg</td><td>TDV</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Mataeo Durant</td><td>5</td><td>106</td><td>636</td><td>6.0</td><td>8</td><td>12</td><td>170</td><td>14.2</td><td>1</td><td>118</td><td>806</td><td>6.8</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Gunnar Holmberg</td><td>5</td><td>52</td><td>158</td><td>3.0</td><td>6</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>52</td><td>158</td><td>3.0</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Jalon Calhoun</td><td>5</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>25</td><td>325</td><td>13.0</td><td>2</td><td>25</td><td>325</td><td>13.0</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Jordan Waters</td><td>5</td><td>31</td><td>186</td><td>6.0</td><td>1</td><td>5</td><td>65</td><td>13.0</td><td>1</td><td>36</td><td>251</td><td>7.0</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Jordan Moore</td><td>5</td><td>21</td><td>100</td><td>4.8</td><td>2</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>21</td><td>100</td><td>4.8</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Jake Bobo</td><td>5</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>40</td><td>437</td><td>10.9</td><td>0</td><td>40</td><td>437</td><td>10.9</td><td>0</td></tr></table><p></p><p>Provided by <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" target="_blank">CFB at Sports Reference</a>: <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/duke/2021.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#rushing_and_receiving" target="_blank">View Original Table</a></p><p>Generated 10/8/2021.</p><p></p><p>I went back to find their one P5 win, over Northwestern. Wow, Northwestern was just terrible. It looks like the key to the game is not to be terrible.</p><p>[MEDIA=youtube]d4jSM6F4VQg[/MEDIA]</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 830567, member: 282"] Just a few stat/model based things. For Sagarin (really simple, and pretty early in the season, still), [TABLE] [TR] [TD]GT Predictor[/TD] [TD]72.66[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Duke Predictor[/TD] [TD]64.75[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Diff (+3 pt Duke Home Field Advantage)[/TD] [TD]4.91[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] So, a 5 point advantage to the good guys. Hope that holds. Here's the last couple of years from Duke, for reference (from sports-reference.com) [TABLE] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Over[/TH] [TH]Over[/TH] [TH]Over[/TH] [TH]Over[/TH] [TH]Conf[/TH] [TH]Conf[/TH] [TH]Conf[/TH] [TH]Conf[/TH] [TH]SRS[/TH] [TH]SRS[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rk[/TD] [TD]Year[/TD] [TD]Conf[/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]L[/TD] [TD]T[/TD] [TD]Pct[/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]L[/TD] [TD]T[/TD] [TD]Pct[/TD] [TD]SRS[/TD] [TD]SOS[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]2021[/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD].000[/TD] [TD]-2.16[/TD] [TD]-5.96[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2020[/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD].182[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD].100[/TD] [TD]-12.88[/TD] [TD]-1.60[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2019[/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD].417[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD].375[/TD] [TD]0.11[/TD] [TD]2.03[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]2018[/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD].615[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD].375[/TD] [TD]6.37[/TD] [TD]3.60[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]2017[/TD] [TD]ACC[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD].538[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD].375[/TD] [TD]7.23[/TD] [TD]3.23[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Provided by [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool']CFB at Sports Reference[/URL]: [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/duke/index.html?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#duke']View Original Table[/URL] Generated 10/8/2021. The SRS is a simple score, where in 2017 and 2018 Duke was about a TD above average, they were way below average last year, and a couple of points below average this year. (i.e. they're better this year than last, but they're not good). We're 6.6 to the positive this year. Duke has a few scoring threats, but their main two are their RB (Durant) and their QB (Holmberg), and it's mainly their running back [TABLE] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Rush[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Rece[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Scri[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rk[/TD] [TD]Player[/TD] [TD]G[/TD] [TD]Att[/TD] [TD]Yds[/TD] [TD]Avg[/TD] [TD]TD[/TD] [TD]Rec[/TD] [TD]Yds[/TD] [TD]Avg[/TD] [TD]TD[/TD] [TD]Plays[/TD] [TD]Yds[/TD] [TD]Avg[/TD] [TD]TDV[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Mataeo Durant[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]106[/TD] [TD]636[/TD] [TD]6.0[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]170[/TD] [TD]14.2[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]118[/TD] [TD]806[/TD] [TD]6.8[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Gunnar Holmberg[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]52[/TD] [TD]158[/TD] [TD]3.0[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]52[/TD] [TD]158[/TD] [TD]3.0[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Jalon Calhoun[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]25[/TD] [TD]325[/TD] [TD]13.0[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]25[/TD] [TD]325[/TD] [TD]13.0[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Jordan Waters[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]31[/TD] [TD]186[/TD] [TD]6.0[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]65[/TD] [TD]13.0[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]36[/TD] [TD]251[/TD] [TD]7.0[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Jordan Moore[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]21[/TD] [TD]100[/TD] [TD]4.8[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]21[/TD] [TD]100[/TD] [TD]4.8[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Jake Bobo[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]40[/TD] [TD]437[/TD] [TD]10.9[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]40[/TD] [TD]437[/TD] [TD]10.9[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Provided by [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool']CFB at Sports Reference[/URL]: [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/duke/2021.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#rushing_and_receiving']View Original Table[/URL] Generated 10/8/2021. I went back to find their one P5 win, over Northwestern. Wow, Northwestern was just terrible. It looks like the key to the game is not to be terrible. [MEDIA=youtube]d4jSM6F4VQg[/MEDIA] [/QUOTE]
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