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Dave Patenaude's Offense
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<blockquote data-quote="ibeattetris" data-source="post: 754369" data-attributes="member: 1175"><p>Since people seemed to get hot and bothered by what I posted earlier, I decided to calculate the success rate for all plays in the 2019 season of the NFL when 3rd or 4th down and 1 yard to go.</p><p>[ATTACH=full]9282[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>In my opinion, this is truly not enough difference to care. I've already said multiple times that I have no problem with us exclusively running from the shotgun, and this data does not change my opinion. If someone thinks we *should* run under center, I don't see any *data* that can contradict them.</p><p></p><p>Just to make thing more fair, I decided to then run the same test for the teams in the top quartile of total shotgun play percentage overall. This came out to be Arizona, Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Kansas City, New York Giants, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh. The same success rate for the top quartile of shotgun plays came out to be:</p><p>[ATTACH=full]9283[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>Based on this, I would argue that teams that base their offense around being shotgun teams are not more likely to be successful in shotgun in 3rd/4th and 1 than under center. I also don't think this is enough data to assume that under center is better either.</p><p></p><p>My opinion is still that we should run the plays we find most success with. If that means 100% of all plays is shotgun than I am all aboard. Disputing that under center is not a viable approach to 3rd/4th and 1 though should not be considered a slam dunk.</p><p></p><p>If people want me to run this with different data, I will. Sadly, ESPN does not provide shotgun data for college football, so I cannot run this for cfb.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="ibeattetris, post: 754369, member: 1175"] Since people seemed to get hot and bothered by what I posted earlier, I decided to calculate the success rate for all plays in the 2019 season of the NFL when 3rd or 4th down and 1 yard to go. [ATTACH type="full"]9282[/ATTACH] In my opinion, this is truly not enough difference to care. I've already said multiple times that I have no problem with us exclusively running from the shotgun, and this data does not change my opinion. If someone thinks we *should* run under center, I don't see any *data* that can contradict them. Just to make thing more fair, I decided to then run the same test for the teams in the top quartile of total shotgun play percentage overall. This came out to be Arizona, Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Kansas City, New York Giants, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh. The same success rate for the top quartile of shotgun plays came out to be: [ATTACH type="full"]9283[/ATTACH] Based on this, I would argue that teams that base their offense around being shotgun teams are not more likely to be successful in shotgun in 3rd/4th and 1 than under center. I also don't think this is enough data to assume that under center is better either. My opinion is still that we should run the plays we find most success with. If that means 100% of all plays is shotgun than I am all aboard. Disputing that under center is not a viable approach to 3rd/4th and 1 though should not be considered a slam dunk. If people want me to run this with different data, I will. Sadly, ESPN does not provide shotgun data for college football, so I cannot run this for cfb. [/QUOTE]
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