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<blockquote data-quote="roadkill" data-source="post: 976922" data-attributes="member: 1555"><p>The problem I have with the 4th quarter “should win” arguments is that they oversimplify the situation, overlooking the statistical variance of who possesses the ball at the beginning and end of the quarter.</p><p>Teams don’t start a new 15-minute game at the beginning of the 4th quarter - one team already has the ball and may be in good field position. And each team is likely to have only 2, possibly 3 more possessions at that point, with a strong likelihood that one team is going to have an extra possession. I’ve seen a lot of games where I thought, “The team that has the ball last will win.” And this was true – our 2014 barn burner against UNC comes to mind (we lost because we scored too fast on our last possession). So, if you enter the quarter with a touchdown or less lead, the game outcome depends quite a bit on the timing of possessions and how many each team has left.</p><p></p><p>Good points have been made about the importance of depth in the fourth, and this is also a key factor. I was very concerned about Syracuse’s run game/ball control wearing our defense down; fortunately, they were up to the task last Saturday.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="roadkill, post: 976922, member: 1555"] The problem I have with the 4th quarter “should win” arguments is that they oversimplify the situation, overlooking the statistical variance of who possesses the ball at the beginning and end of the quarter. Teams don’t start a new 15-minute game at the beginning of the 4th quarter - one team already has the ball and may be in good field position. And each team is likely to have only 2, possibly 3 more possessions at that point, with a strong likelihood that one team is going to have an extra possession. I’ve seen a lot of games where I thought, “The team that has the ball last will win.” And this was true – our 2014 barn burner against UNC comes to mind (we lost because we scored too fast on our last possession). So, if you enter the quarter with a touchdown or less lead, the game outcome depends quite a bit on the timing of possessions and how many each team has left. Good points have been made about the importance of depth in the fourth, and this is also a key factor. I was very concerned about Syracuse’s run game/ball control wearing our defense down; fortunately, they were up to the task last Saturday. [/QUOTE]
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