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CPJ in One-Score Games
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<blockquote data-quote="bke1984" data-source="post: 354429" data-attributes="member: 932"><p>I understand that not all one score games are created equal, but a one score differential is by far the simplest measure to determine if a game was close or not. Plus, we all know that one crazy play can happen in a football game that results in a score...this could be the difference between a win and a loss in a single score decision (see 2015 FSU).</p><p></p><p>I already have game data for Tech, so let's take a look at it by coach. My thoughts on the matter is that over time a coach's winning % in single score decisions should level out at 50%...doesn't exactly seem to be the cast though...</p><p></p><p>So 35% over the past 8 years...does it mean he's a bad coach? No...it's just interesting. Look at the guys who had a percentage like that in the 30's for their careers. I know Alexander won a NC, but go look at his record during the 30's. Bobby Dodd once said he any other coach would have been fired for losing as many games as Alexander did during that time.</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]2992[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p></p><p>So anyhow...let's let the stats go for a minute....</p><p></p><p>Right now it seems like we either win in blowout fashion, lose a close hard fought game, or win by some freakin' miracle (see 2016 BC, 2016 uGA, 2015 FSU, 2014 uGA, 2014 VT....2014 Georgia Southern...both a blowout and a miracle at the same time <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite12" alt="o_O" title="Er... what? o_O" loading="lazy" data-shortname="o_O" />)</p><p></p><p>Every game is different, but we seem to have trouble in tight games right now without having something crazy happen. Our coach also tends to make some really crazy decisions at times in these contests...the Qua TD to win in Athens was amazing, but c'mon...THAT'S what you had to resort to with first and goal within the 5...with Dedrick Mills on your squad? An AB toss pass? We could have run the ball up the middle three straight times and won that game. For another example that didn't turn out so well, see the 2009 uGA game...the decision to throw deep multiple times in a row at the end is still mind boggling.</p><p></p><p>FYI, I love our coach. He's got balls and he keeps us competitive against the toughest teams on our schedule. A lot of what I've noticed could easily be bad luck...but it's pretty clear to me that it's been a trend. Hopefully this stuff turns around...</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="bke1984, post: 354429, member: 932"] I understand that not all one score games are created equal, but a one score differential is by far the simplest measure to determine if a game was close or not. Plus, we all know that one crazy play can happen in a football game that results in a score...this could be the difference between a win and a loss in a single score decision (see 2015 FSU). I already have game data for Tech, so let's take a look at it by coach. My thoughts on the matter is that over time a coach's winning % in single score decisions should level out at 50%...doesn't exactly seem to be the cast though... So 35% over the past 8 years...does it mean he's a bad coach? No...it's just interesting. Look at the guys who had a percentage like that in the 30's for their careers. I know Alexander won a NC, but go look at his record during the 30's. Bobby Dodd once said he any other coach would have been fired for losing as many games as Alexander did during that time. [ATTACH=full]2992[/ATTACH] So anyhow...let's let the stats go for a minute.... Right now it seems like we either win in blowout fashion, lose a close hard fought game, or win by some freakin' miracle (see 2016 BC, 2016 uGA, 2015 FSU, 2014 uGA, 2014 VT....2014 Georgia Southern...both a blowout and a miracle at the same time o_O) Every game is different, but we seem to have trouble in tight games right now without having something crazy happen. Our coach also tends to make some really crazy decisions at times in these contests...the Qua TD to win in Athens was amazing, but c'mon...THAT'S what you had to resort to with first and goal within the 5...with Dedrick Mills on your squad? An AB toss pass? We could have run the ball up the middle three straight times and won that game. For another example that didn't turn out so well, see the 2009 uGA game...the decision to throw deep multiple times in a row at the end is still mind boggling. FYI, I love our coach. He's got balls and he keeps us competitive against the toughest teams on our schedule. A lot of what I've noticed could easily be bad luck...but it's pretty clear to me that it's been a trend. Hopefully this stuff turns around... [/QUOTE]
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