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<blockquote data-quote="smathis30" data-source="post: 354356" data-attributes="member: 1803"><p>I like PPD, but it never really goes into the whole story. Its good at retroactively stating how good teams are but doesn't really indicate how well teams will do in the future. UNC in 2015 was a prime example of that in their loss to South Carolina. Dominated the entire game but had something like 3 red zone turnovers that made them look worse than what they are. Teams (like tripple option teams or air raid teams) that rely on consistent short yardage plays always look better than they should in these type of models due to limiting possesions and higher chances of explosive plays. Its why most advanced stats (FEI, S&P+, Massey, FPI) all use a composite of things like PPD or PPP (points per play) to measure a combination of everything as well as field position and Special teams effects, 3rd down % to measure consistency, and yards per play to measure explosiveness, and TOM as it is far and out the highest correlation for winning. Food for thought.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="smathis30, post: 354356, member: 1803"] I like PPD, but it never really goes into the whole story. Its good at retroactively stating how good teams are but doesn't really indicate how well teams will do in the future. UNC in 2015 was a prime example of that in their loss to South Carolina. Dominated the entire game but had something like 3 red zone turnovers that made them look worse than what they are. Teams (like tripple option teams or air raid teams) that rely on consistent short yardage plays always look better than they should in these type of models due to limiting possesions and higher chances of explosive plays. Its why most advanced stats (FEI, S&P+, Massey, FPI) all use a composite of things like PPD or PPP (points per play) to measure a combination of everything as well as field position and Special teams effects, 3rd down % to measure consistency, and yards per play to measure explosiveness, and TOM as it is far and out the highest correlation for winning. Food for thought. [/QUOTE]
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