CPJ in One-Score Games

[bke1984]

So after basically not sleeping last night I got to thinking that I've been watching the same story unfold in close games a LOT recently...Tech gets ahead by multiple scores...offense slows from scoring, but also can't chew clock, defense lets game slip away on final drive. It's not just a meltdown on one side or the other, but it's basically a team meltdown every time it happens.

So I got to thinking about what @ilovetheoption said, and what I've said several times myself over the past few years...we just didn't get the 50-50 balls and that's been the difference in wins and losses and good seasons and bad seasons. What I started to think to myself in particular was that CPJ has just not been that good a coach in close games. What's I found funny is that I remember early his tenure thinking he was an incredible in-game coach and that could be the difference between average seasons and good seasons. So I decided to pull the wins and losses in one score games (8 points or less) to see if there was anything to this...and here it goes...

Just for kicks I decided to pull Gailey's numbers too to see how they compare

The top chart shows games, wins, and losses by season in games decided by 8 points, the season win %, cumulative win % (from first season to that given season for the coach), and Win % since (from that season to final season for the coach).

What's crazy is that Gailey never had a season where he had a losing record in one score games. He played two less in his tenure than Johnson did in his first six seasons, so it wasn't all that different. I'll spare you my other thoughts on his coaching abilities since that's not what this is about.

Johnson on the other hand has been pretty erratic in close games. Honestly he was great in his first two seasons and has been either average or just plain bad since with 2016 being the exception. Since 2010 we are 13-24 in games decided by one score or less...35%...that's pretty freakin' bad. Even if you throw out 2015 where we were 1-6 in these games he's only at 40% since 2010.

So what does it mean? Well, as we've all said before, if winning close games is the difference between good seasons and average seasons then we've got some work to do...and it seems like our head coach in particular has had a problem with this since he's been the only constant over those 10 years.

I love the style of football, but CPJ needs to find a way to win these games. I'm not sure why it happens...many could point to not being able to score late, but I think more often than not it's not being able to hang on for a win as I described at the start of the post.

 

[Fatmike91]

Wake Forest beat Ga Tech 9-6 in the 2006 ACC Championahip game.

Don’t start wishing for Chan back in ONE SCORE GAMES. We had Calvin Johnson on the field. It doesn’t get any worse.

Sorry - not buying into your story.

/

 

[bke1984]

Lol. Did you read the post? I was not at all a Gailey fan. The point wasn't to say that Gailey was better in one score games, but that Johnson has been pretty pathetic in one score games over the past 8 years. The numbers tell the story.

 

[Fatmike91]

I did read the post and completely disagree. I sat in the rain in Jacksonville watching that horrible horrible game.

We lost at the Hard Rock- I’m over it.

/

 

[iceeater1969]

Wake Forest beat Ga Tech 9-6 in the 2006 ACC Championahip game.

Don’t start wishing for Chan back in ONE SCORE GAMES. We had Calvin Johnson on the field. It doesn’t get any worse.

Sorry - not buying into your story.

/

You went to the CHAN HATE (thats my job) and missed the question. Are u not at least be curious " why we are 1 out of 3 in close games.".
It could be teams w 4 5 * recruits win close games and nothing to do w a particular coach.

 

[iceeater1969]

Fat M
I am over it too and I didn't sit in rain in Jacksonville but I wonder if only winning 1 out of 3 is just a fluke of statistics

 

[LibertyTurns]

Can’t believe there’s so many Chan lovers on here? Do we really want to go back to the days of squandering talent like Calvin Johnson or a defense loaded with NFL talent? What we need is Chan’s recruiting & today’s coaching. A few more studs on the defense couple with some depth at offense skill positions and we’re winning 2-3 more games per year if not more.

I have a question and I’m sure it’s not really answerable unless you have a ton of time on your hands. How many of these close games were we underdogs, underdogs on the road, favored at home, etc. It’s one thing to lose a close game, it’s another too lose a close game where you should get blown out on the road and a completely different scenario to be in a barn burner against a team you should be shellacking. Remember Gardner Webb anyone?

 

[bke1984]

Can’t believe there’s so many Chan lovers on here? Do we really want to go back to the days of squandering talent like Calvin Johnson or a defense loaded with NFL talent? What we need is Chan’s recruiting & today’s coaching. A few more studs on the defense couple with some depth at offense skill positions and we’re winning 2-3 more games per year if not more.

I have a question and I’m sure it’s not really answerable unless you have a ton of time on your hands. How many of these close games were we underdogs, underdogs on the road, favored at home, etc. It’s one thing to lose a close game, it’s another too lose a close game where you should get blown out on the road and a completely different scenario to be in a barn burner against a team you should be shellacking. Remember Gardner Webb anyone?

All good questions. Maybe I'll pull those numbers later today if I have time.

 

[bobbie_downtown]

Win Loss Total
Gailey 16 13 29
Johnson 23 27 50
Total 39 40 79

Fisher's exact test
The two-tailed P value equals 0.4888
The association between rows (groups) and columns (outcomes) is considered to be not statistically significant.

 

[Animal02]

This falls into the meaningless stats file.

 

[33jacket]

Wow

Some of u get so hung up on emotion here. Its not about chan or Paul. He is just showing the data that paul has performed below 500 and it happens to be worse than chan. Its kinda hard to get data before the internet era which just happens to coincide with these two coaches.

Is it a statistically significant delta? Probably not. But my takeaway is we are below 500 in one score games. And it feels that way; we lose alot of games giving em away.

 

[4shotB]

This falls into the meaningless stats file.

I am confused. As Tech grads, where else do you look for solutions to problems besides the data. Goat entrails? tea leaves? I think the data is where you start. This isn't about CCG vs. CPJ and I don't think anyone is framing it as such.

 

[GTFLETCH]

This would be like me comparing our Bowl games and ACC Championship Appearances between Chan Gailey and Paul Johnson.... Oh Wait there is no comparison... Paul Johnson has had greater success on the flats... Here is the deal, we are Georgia Tech, Why did Bobby Ross leave Tech, because it is hard to recruit and coach at Tech... We still might lose Paul Johnson as his contract has not been extended yet (At least not publicly) and we know Nebraska and Tenn will be looking for a Coach (Kstate and Baylor could come calling)

keep in mind we have the toughest schedule nationwide (link http://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2017/10/remaining-2017-sos.html)

I love the fight in our team, have faith that the ball will bounce our way in the future.....

 

[LibertyTurns]

I am confused. As Tech grads, where else do you look for solutions to problems besides the data. Goat entrails? tea leaves? I think the data is where you start. This isn't about CCG vs. CPJ and I don't think anyone is framing it as such.

Sometimes seasoned judgment trumps data. For example you don’t have to wait for your neighbor to diddle your wife 50 times to realize you need to kick her to the curb. Once is enough. Other times you need to let the data present itself. You probably have to go back to Dodd to find a coach that “beat the odds”.

I recognize the drama around the situation but beneath all this you have to figure out what exactly is the root cause of the issues. I for one believe them to be institutional. Bud Peterson does not care enough about athletics and neither did his predecessors. He cares that the teams are competitive enough so he’s not having to be distracted by fans clamoring for him to do something & he can focus on research & academics. Until we get a leader that gives a crap & decides to invest in GT athletics at a significant level we will remain where we’ve remained for my entire adult life outside of catching lightning in a bottle once. Read our strategic plan- virtually zero references to athletics.

 

[4shotB]

This would be like me comparing our Bowl games and ACC Championship Appearances between Chan Gailey and Paul Johnson.... Oh Wait there is no comparison... Paul Johnson has had greater success on the flats... http://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2017/10/remaining-2017-sos.html)

.

again, I don't think this is about Chan vs. Paul (unless I am obtuse and completely unaware of it). This is looking at the data to see what can be done to improve going forward. isn't that what we do at work (or at least many of us)?

 

[tmhunter52]

If Coach Johnson would quit calling timeouts when his 4th down play fakes don't work, he would have timeouts left to more effectively manage end-of-half or end-of-game situations. I am baffled why he did not call a timeout after the first bubble screen on that last Miami series to make the coverage adjustment that every Tech fan on the planet - except DC Roof - was screaming for. If Coach Johnson wants to win those close games, he needs to take the defensive reigns from Roof when he sees Roof asleep at the wheel.

 

[Animal02]

I am confused. As Tech grads, where else do you look for solutions to problems besides the data. Goat entrails? tea leaves? I think the data is where you start. This isn't about CCG vs. CPJ and I don't think anyone is framing it as such.

Too many variables of how and why a game ended within one score to have any meaning.

 

[GTFLETCH]

again, I don't think this is about Chan vs. Paul (unless I am obtuse and completely unaware of it). This is looking at the data to see what can be done to improve going forward. isn't that what we do at work (or at least many of us)?

Ok, now we can start talking..... Going forward to improve on the last Ten years (GT has gone to 1 Peach Bowl, 2 Orange Bowls and haw won an ACC Title and has played in multiple ACC title games)

The only way to improve on this, is to have the alumni and sidewalk fans step up like Clemson/FSU or SEC fans and get the Donations to $20M plus a year... Until that happens we need to pay Paul Johnson to stay and/or hope that Ken will leave Navy and come Coach at GT

 

[lv20gt]

If Coach Johnson would quit calling timeouts when his 4th down play fakes don't work, he would have timeouts left to more effectively manage end-of-half or end-of-game situations. I am baffled why he did not call a timeout after the first bubble screen on that last Miami series to make the coverage adjustment that every Tech fan on the planet - except DC Roof - was screaming for. If Coach Johnson wants to win those close games, he needs to take the defensive reigns from Roof when he sees Roof asleep at the wheel.

Johnson was asleep at the wheel with the offense and you wanted him to take control of the defense? What a joke. If we want to win we need our offense to get it's head out of its behind and start putting teams away.

 

[wvGT11]

Johnson was asleep at the wheel with the offense and you wanted him to take control of the defense? What a joke. If we want to win we need our offense to get it's head out of its behind and start putting teams away.

What we need is the CPJ death march again.