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<blockquote data-quote="BCJacket" data-source="post: 995098" data-attributes="member: 2332"><p>I really think FSU has painted themselves into a corner. The fans/boosters/BOR had already convinced themselves being in the ACC was holding them back. Then they had an emotional overreaction to getting left out of the playoffs. (Which is a reasonable gripe.) The problem is, this lawsuit has no real legs. </p><p></p><p>The only possibly legitimate legal complaint is regarding the ACC extending ESPN's option without a vote. But if the court is going to nullify that, they're going to have to bring ESPN in as a party to the lawsuit... which is not going to benefit FSU in the big picture.</p><p></p><p>FSU is a valuable brand. They draw good TV ratings. But they're not a top top tier Texas, Alabama, tOSU brand. And their media market is not the best.</p><p></p><p>Would the SEC or B1G want FSU? All else equal, probably. But for them to get an invite the other schools have to want them. This lawsuit makes them look like a crappy 'team member' for a conference. FSU doesn't have the best academics, which the B1G Presidents care about. </p><p>The SEC schools in FL, GA, SC, Bama, don't want the recruiting. It's not a slam dunk. And what's FSU worth to the conference members? IIUC the additional payout for adding a school is ~$60 million and the school's share is ~$50 million. (FSU is going to expect a full share.) So, each school would get just ~$500k a year more and have to deal with FSU's drama... That's if Fox and ESPN even want to add FSU. Their opinion will weigh heavily on the league's vote. FSU is more valuable to ESPN in the ACC. And if they're suing ESPN, that's not going to help. Fox might want them, but how much? I think the only way they get in is agreeing to a small enough share to entice the other schools.</p><p></p><p>Which, then you have to look at what the value is to FSU. At a full share they'd get $10-20 million more per year. But at what cost? There's no way the court is going to let them out for $0. TX and OK negotiationed down by about a 1/3 to $100M to get out of the Big12 just a couple years early. Even if FSU negotiates it down to... 1/2, they're looking at $250M, a 20-30 year payback with a full share... And I don't think they can get an invite to the B1G or SEC at a full share.</p><p></p><p>But, I don't see any way they can stay in the ACC at this point. They may have had a soft 'offer' from the B1G commissioners office if they could get out of the ACC. But that still requires a vote and the mess and costs of getting out the ACC may not make that viable. IMHO, most likely they end up in a worse financial situation, in the Big12, Independent, or taking a much reduced share in the B1G or SEC. While also owing the ACC a ton of money.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="BCJacket, post: 995098, member: 2332"] I really think FSU has painted themselves into a corner. The fans/boosters/BOR had already convinced themselves being in the ACC was holding them back. Then they had an emotional overreaction to getting left out of the playoffs. (Which is a reasonable gripe.) The problem is, this lawsuit has no real legs. The only possibly legitimate legal complaint is regarding the ACC extending ESPN's option without a vote. But if the court is going to nullify that, they're going to have to bring ESPN in as a party to the lawsuit... which is not going to benefit FSU in the big picture. FSU is a valuable brand. They draw good TV ratings. But they're not a top top tier Texas, Alabama, tOSU brand. And their media market is not the best. Would the SEC or B1G want FSU? All else equal, probably. But for them to get an invite the other schools have to want them. This lawsuit makes them look like a crappy 'team member' for a conference. FSU doesn't have the best academics, which the B1G Presidents care about. The SEC schools in FL, GA, SC, Bama, don't want the recruiting. It's not a slam dunk. And what's FSU worth to the conference members? IIUC the additional payout for adding a school is ~$60 million and the school's share is ~$50 million. (FSU is going to expect a full share.) So, each school would get just ~$500k a year more and have to deal with FSU's drama... That's if Fox and ESPN even want to add FSU. Their opinion will weigh heavily on the league's vote. FSU is more valuable to ESPN in the ACC. And if they're suing ESPN, that's not going to help. Fox might want them, but how much? I think the only way they get in is agreeing to a small enough share to entice the other schools. Which, then you have to look at what the value is to FSU. At a full share they'd get $10-20 million more per year. But at what cost? There's no way the court is going to let them out for $0. TX and OK negotiationed down by about a 1/3 to $100M to get out of the Big12 just a couple years early. Even if FSU negotiates it down to... 1/2, they're looking at $250M, a 20-30 year payback with a full share... And I don't think they can get an invite to the B1G or SEC at a full share. But, I don't see any way they can stay in the ACC at this point. They may have had a soft 'offer' from the B1G commissioners office if they could get out of the ACC. But that still requires a vote and the mess and costs of getting out the ACC may not make that viable. IMHO, most likely they end up in a worse financial situation, in the Big12, Independent, or taking a much reduced share in the B1G or SEC. While also owing the ACC a ton of money. [/QUOTE]
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