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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 990772" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>I’m not saying use a computer model to pick teams. I’m saying use objective criteria and objective rules. Define in advance what it means to deserve your shot, and stick with it.</p><p></p><p>But, as far as accuracy,!I can show you how well they do in predicting games and how they do against the point spreads. They’ll do better than a committee vote.</p><p></p><p>A lot of stats get abused. The “should I go for it on 4th and 2” stat you see used doesn’t have a “the defense has Suh and Campbell at DT” component to it. The percentage win prediction is probably not all that far off—the odds of someone not taking a knee and fumbling and the scoring in 30 seconds from deep in their own side are pretty low. It’s probably off some—it needs “fatter tails”. </p><p></p><p>I’ve used models to talk about who to pick, but one reason why is that they’re clear about the rules. Before you make a big decision, set up your decision criteria—make it clear and objective. If you’re buying a car, decide what a good deal is in advance—if the dealer keeps making changes, walk away. </p><p></p><p>What the CFP committee did was make a decision in the same way people end up buying too much car or a house they can’t afford. It’s also the same way a CEO pushes a merger when it’s not a good value, or how an athletic department hires a bad head coach. They went unprepared into a decision, and they kept rationalizing what they were doing.</p><p></p><p>MLB wouldn’t let a committee put the Yankees in the playoffs if they didn’t meet a pre-defined standard. Smart people set up rules so they don’t panic. The CFP committee panicked.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 990772, member: 282"] I’m not saying use a computer model to pick teams. I’m saying use objective criteria and objective rules. Define in advance what it means to deserve your shot, and stick with it. But, as far as accuracy,!I can show you how well they do in predicting games and how they do against the point spreads. They’ll do better than a committee vote. A lot of stats get abused. The “should I go for it on 4th and 2” stat you see used doesn’t have a “the defense has Suh and Campbell at DT” component to it. The percentage win prediction is probably not all that far off—the odds of someone not taking a knee and fumbling and the scoring in 30 seconds from deep in their own side are pretty low. It’s probably off some—it needs “fatter tails”. I’ve used models to talk about who to pick, but one reason why is that they’re clear about the rules. Before you make a big decision, set up your decision criteria—make it clear and objective. If you’re buying a car, decide what a good deal is in advance—if the dealer keeps making changes, walk away. What the CFP committee did was make a decision in the same way people end up buying too much car or a house they can’t afford. It’s also the same way a CEO pushes a merger when it’s not a good value, or how an athletic department hires a bad head coach. They went unprepared into a decision, and they kept rationalizing what they were doing. MLB wouldn’t let a committee put the Yankees in the playoffs if they didn’t meet a pre-defined standard. Smart people set up rules so they don’t panic. The CFP committee panicked. [/QUOTE]
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