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<blockquote data-quote="RonJohn" data-source="post: 990765" data-attributes="member: 2426"><p>Nothing negative against you, but I don't like models and statistical analysis for football for anything other than pure entertainment. Even something as old and tested as Sagarin's ratings is not very good at predicting. You can use some stats, like passing yards per game gained and allowed to predict that a prolific passing team is going to have a field day against a troubled passing defensive team. However, trying to predict who will actually win games using those models is ridiculous in my opinion. There isn't enough data available in any season to get an accurate model established.</p><p></p><p>I think the biggest problem is that some people see "statistical model" and believe that they produce accurate results. One of the most glaring to me is the ESPN win probability number. I don't think it does anything at all except for perk up people's interest in a game. (Which is the only reason that ESPN has it in the first place)</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="RonJohn, post: 990765, member: 2426"] Nothing negative against you, but I don't like models and statistical analysis for football for anything other than pure entertainment. Even something as old and tested as Sagarin's ratings is not very good at predicting. You can use some stats, like passing yards per game gained and allowed to predict that a prolific passing team is going to have a field day against a troubled passing defensive team. However, trying to predict who will actually win games using those models is ridiculous in my opinion. There isn't enough data available in any season to get an accurate model established. I think the biggest problem is that some people see "statistical model" and believe that they produce accurate results. One of the most glaring to me is the ESPN win probability number. I don't think it does anything at all except for perk up people's interest in a game. (Which is the only reason that ESPN has it in the first place) [/QUOTE]
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