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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 990758" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>The predictive models will put emphasis on point differential before garbage time, EPA, offensive and defensive efficiency, etc. it’s not just who you beat but how thoroughly you dominated them and how good they were. </p><p>In boxing terms, if two boxers fought the same opponents, but one kept knocking their opponents out in early rounds, you’d favor the boxer with the knockouts.</p><p></p><p>For the playoffs, I like weighting resumes more—put in the teams that earned it, like FSU and Washington. Predictive rankings favor UGA and Oregon more.</p><p></p><p>There are so few games in a college football season, that people keep pointing to a game or two. In baseball, you have 162 games. The Braves can lose the season series to the Marlins, but be 15 games ahead of them, and no one bats an eye. No one reasonable says “the Marlins beat the Braves, so they’re a better team”. In college football, people get wrapped up in one game because there are so few of them.</p><p></p><p>Twelve games are so few that bad luck, an injury, or a bad 1:1 matchup can sway the outcomes a lot. </p><p></p><p>And, on the “avoiding the TCU blowout” question—TCU won their semifinal. They belonged in the CFP. UGA would’ve been a bad matchup for almost anyone.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 990758, member: 282"] The predictive models will put emphasis on point differential before garbage time, EPA, offensive and defensive efficiency, etc. it’s not just who you beat but how thoroughly you dominated them and how good they were. In boxing terms, if two boxers fought the same opponents, but one kept knocking their opponents out in early rounds, you’d favor the boxer with the knockouts. For the playoffs, I like weighting resumes more—put in the teams that earned it, like FSU and Washington. Predictive rankings favor UGA and Oregon more. There are so few games in a college football season, that people keep pointing to a game or two. In baseball, you have 162 games. The Braves can lose the season series to the Marlins, but be 15 games ahead of them, and no one bats an eye. No one reasonable says “the Marlins beat the Braves, so they’re a better team”. In college football, people get wrapped up in one game because there are so few of them. Twelve games are so few that bad luck, an injury, or a bad 1:1 matchup can sway the outcomes a lot. And, on the “avoiding the TCU blowout” question—TCU won their semifinal. They belonged in the CFP. UGA would’ve been a bad matchup for almost anyone. [/QUOTE]
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