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<blockquote data-quote="GTrob21" data-source="post: 946247" data-attributes="member: 84"><p>Ok so now that we are a little bit further down the road, here is where I am at and have come to accept. Full disclosure, I could be completely wrong. However...</p><p></p><p>I think a lot of the message boards are completely missing the mark. Many of them are talking about how the B12 will invite PAC12 and ACC members, and these schools will just jump. Which I find laughable. I think the way of college football realignment will settle on 2 major conferences and 3 regional ones. </p><p></p><p>Here is why, there are only 3 conferences with linear networks, capable of producing live events for T.V. (SEC, B1G and ACC). That is a distinct advantage not only in $$$ but also in exposure and branding. Despite what you hear on the message boards, or even some of the FSU and Clemson people, the ACC is firmly 3rd in revenue and that will only widen during our current deal.</p><p></p><p>Another aspect I see not being discussed is the one area in the United States that produces the highest rate of college athletes and is college football obsessed. And this region has some of the highest growth states in the US. (hint, it's where we live). If you are in business, and you have a product, and there is an area where your product is already used and loved, and this area produces the raw materials that you need, in better quality and quantity, and you don't have a presence there, you better get in that market quick. Hell this is like Business 101, and the B1G is not dumb, they know that for their business to survive and thrive, they need these markets. They need North Carolina, Georgia and Florida to be specific. Those are the states that are growing, and Georgia and Florida, are two of the top-producing college talents in the US. The gap in revenue between B1G and SEC and the ACC is primarily made up of the number of eyeballs that watch their games, and the draw of their big brands. </p><p></p><p>The last aspect to consider is AAU affiliation. It matters to the B1G. They want to be associated with high-level research institutions.</p><p></p><p>The path of expansion is very simple. The B1G is coming East and South. I think they go to Oregon and Washington because those are brands, that already have AAU accreditation, have good ratings, and are travel partners for USC and UCLA, but the end game is that the B1G will want a presence in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and I suspect Virginia.</p><p></p><p>I think in the End, the B1G I think will get the following schools to join.</p><p></p><p>1) Washington (AAU, flagship school)</p><p>2) Oregon (AAU, big football brand and flagship school)</p><p>3) UVA (AAU, flagship school of Virginia)</p><p>4) UNC (AAU, flagship school of North Carolina, major basketball brand, and potential in football)</p><p>5) Duke (AAU, and major basketball brand)</p><p>6) Georgia Tech ( AAU, no real success or brand strength, but they open the market in GA)</p><p>7) FSU (No AAU...yet but I predict FSU will get AAU, and they will go to the B1G, major football brand and will open the state of Florida for the B1G network)</p><p></p><p>I think that is where they stop.</p><p></p><p>I think the SEC will also move in the same direction, and take Clemson (Brand and ratings), Virginia Tech, NC State and maybe Kansas. But i'm not convinced anybody else brings value to their model.</p><p></p><p>I think after that you will have the Big 2 and then regional college football conferences. The idea of the giant conference spanning from coast to coast made up of the best of the rest, I don't think is financially feasible.</p><p></p><p>So come mid-2030s, we will have two major conferences and 3 smaller regional conferences. I think the ACC network will probably be dissolved at that time, much like the Longhorn network was because after all these moves it just won't be that profitable. </p><p></p><p>All future moves will follow the base motives of the conferences. For the SEC that is to maximize the profit of its Brand. For the B1G, that is maximizing the profit of its brand and AAU accreditation.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GTrob21, post: 946247, member: 84"] Ok so now that we are a little bit further down the road, here is where I am at and have come to accept. Full disclosure, I could be completely wrong. However... I think a lot of the message boards are completely missing the mark. Many of them are talking about how the B12 will invite PAC12 and ACC members, and these schools will just jump. Which I find laughable. I think the way of college football realignment will settle on 2 major conferences and 3 regional ones. Here is why, there are only 3 conferences with linear networks, capable of producing live events for T.V. (SEC, B1G and ACC). That is a distinct advantage not only in $$$ but also in exposure and branding. Despite what you hear on the message boards, or even some of the FSU and Clemson people, the ACC is firmly 3rd in revenue and that will only widen during our current deal. Another aspect I see not being discussed is the one area in the United States that produces the highest rate of college athletes and is college football obsessed. And this region has some of the highest growth states in the US. (hint, it's where we live). If you are in business, and you have a product, and there is an area where your product is already used and loved, and this area produces the raw materials that you need, in better quality and quantity, and you don't have a presence there, you better get in that market quick. Hell this is like Business 101, and the B1G is not dumb, they know that for their business to survive and thrive, they need these markets. They need North Carolina, Georgia and Florida to be specific. Those are the states that are growing, and Georgia and Florida, are two of the top-producing college talents in the US. The gap in revenue between B1G and SEC and the ACC is primarily made up of the number of eyeballs that watch their games, and the draw of their big brands. The last aspect to consider is AAU affiliation. It matters to the B1G. They want to be associated with high-level research institutions. The path of expansion is very simple. The B1G is coming East and South. I think they go to Oregon and Washington because those are brands, that already have AAU accreditation, have good ratings, and are travel partners for USC and UCLA, but the end game is that the B1G will want a presence in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and I suspect Virginia. I think in the End, the B1G I think will get the following schools to join. 1) Washington (AAU, flagship school) 2) Oregon (AAU, big football brand and flagship school) 3) UVA (AAU, flagship school of Virginia) 4) UNC (AAU, flagship school of North Carolina, major basketball brand, and potential in football) 5) Duke (AAU, and major basketball brand) 6) Georgia Tech ( AAU, no real success or brand strength, but they open the market in GA) 7) FSU (No AAU...yet but I predict FSU will get AAU, and they will go to the B1G, major football brand and will open the state of Florida for the B1G network) I think that is where they stop. I think the SEC will also move in the same direction, and take Clemson (Brand and ratings), Virginia Tech, NC State and maybe Kansas. But i'm not convinced anybody else brings value to their model. I think after that you will have the Big 2 and then regional college football conferences. The idea of the giant conference spanning from coast to coast made up of the best of the rest, I don't think is financially feasible. So come mid-2030s, we will have two major conferences and 3 smaller regional conferences. I think the ACC network will probably be dissolved at that time, much like the Longhorn network was because after all these moves it just won't be that profitable. All future moves will follow the base motives of the conferences. For the SEC that is to maximize the profit of its Brand. For the B1G, that is maximizing the profit of its brand and AAU accreditation. [/QUOTE]
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