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<blockquote data-quote="IEEEWreck" data-source="post: 881745" data-attributes="member: 617"><p>Ya'll are debating second order processes while ignoring the first order process that dominates: ESPN as we know it is dying.</p><p></p><p>It lost 8 million cable and satellite subscribers last year. Disclosure shenanigans around streaming make the net loss impossible to pin down, but conservative estimates are a net loss of 3 million AND a ~30% loss of revenue on people who migrated from cable to streaming. There's plenty of articles talking about the loss and what it means, but it is very consistent with across the industry losses in cable and satellite and devaluation of streaming services as the market realizes that streaming isn't as profitable as cable and to the moon optimism on subscriber count gives way to reality.</p><p></p><p>The cash flush in football is directly attributable to an unprecedented bundling market distortion as ESPN ate its late competitive models. Thing is, the peak of that phenomenon was 10 years ago, and just as nobody made as much money off of bundling all sports everywhere as ESPN no one stands to lose as much money as streaming breaks the monopolies and therefore the bundlers. Moreover, CFB just isn't a champion content source for ESPN. As revenue decline squeezes the price of media rights, CFB lacks both the numbers and the sustained enthusiasm of the markets for the NFL or NBA and it's fractured into conferences instead of wrapped up in culturally and legally well aligned leagues. </p><p></p><p>The conferences are expanding not because they are terrified of the next negotiation and want to protect their income. They will fail. They are attempting to form a cartel in a shrinking market, and that is never a stable economic arrangement without things like assassinations and theft that the SEC has only limited access to.</p><p></p><p>The truth is, as access to cash from people who want to buy NFL games disappears, the price of a team's media is going to revert towards the equilibrium price of the number of eyeballs that team brings to the table. In that environment, there's no particular premium in selling your media rights to an ESPN vs. selling your games directly yourself. </p><p></p><p>The "superconference" will last maybe 10 years at the longest as ESPN's subscriber base collapses. Then they have to actually sell a media product to consumers that intend to consume it. That means all the reasons this thread has well identified that the new superconference is a bad game to watch will drag down revenue for the conference. Competition will break out for watching experience like it has for stadium experience. No op empty suit executives will be fired, idiot announcers will be removed and individual team tailored media will dominate. Heck, even advertising revenue will decline as giant ad buy bundling becomes impossible and your local team's game may well have ads from local businesses. </p><p></p><p>Not dealing with that reality is like arguing over which car is gonna win a race because they have a better spoiler.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="IEEEWreck, post: 881745, member: 617"] Ya'll are debating second order processes while ignoring the first order process that dominates: ESPN as we know it is dying. It lost 8 million cable and satellite subscribers last year. Disclosure shenanigans around streaming make the net loss impossible to pin down, but conservative estimates are a net loss of 3 million AND a ~30% loss of revenue on people who migrated from cable to streaming. There's plenty of articles talking about the loss and what it means, but it is very consistent with across the industry losses in cable and satellite and devaluation of streaming services as the market realizes that streaming isn't as profitable as cable and to the moon optimism on subscriber count gives way to reality. The cash flush in football is directly attributable to an unprecedented bundling market distortion as ESPN ate its late competitive models. Thing is, the peak of that phenomenon was 10 years ago, and just as nobody made as much money off of bundling all sports everywhere as ESPN no one stands to lose as much money as streaming breaks the monopolies and therefore the bundlers. Moreover, CFB just isn't a champion content source for ESPN. As revenue decline squeezes the price of media rights, CFB lacks both the numbers and the sustained enthusiasm of the markets for the NFL or NBA and it's fractured into conferences instead of wrapped up in culturally and legally well aligned leagues. The conferences are expanding not because they are terrified of the next negotiation and want to protect their income. They will fail. They are attempting to form a cartel in a shrinking market, and that is never a stable economic arrangement without things like assassinations and theft that the SEC has only limited access to. The truth is, as access to cash from people who want to buy NFL games disappears, the price of a team's media is going to revert towards the equilibrium price of the number of eyeballs that team brings to the table. In that environment, there's no particular premium in selling your media rights to an ESPN vs. selling your games directly yourself. The "superconference" will last maybe 10 years at the longest as ESPN's subscriber base collapses. Then they have to actually sell a media product to consumers that intend to consume it. That means all the reasons this thread has well identified that the new superconference is a bad game to watch will drag down revenue for the conference. Competition will break out for watching experience like it has for stadium experience. No op empty suit executives will be fired, idiot announcers will be removed and individual team tailored media will dominate. Heck, even advertising revenue will decline as giant ad buy bundling becomes impossible and your local team's game may well have ads from local businesses. Not dealing with that reality is like arguing over which car is gonna win a race because they have a better spoiler. [/QUOTE]
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