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Comparison of GT Versus Clemson, UGAg and FSU Football Outsiders Stats -- And Hope
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<blockquote data-quote="GTNavyNuke" data-source="post: 105331" data-attributes="member: 322"><p>We have to get the turnovers. Fumble recovery is luck based ..... here's a Michigan article on how fumbles are random. He only looks at year to year, but shows that the correlation year to year is negligible as compared to say offensive yards gained or defensive yards lost. <a href="http://mgoblog.com/diaries/turnovers-and-randomness" target="_blank">http://mgoblog.com/diaries/turnovers-and-randomness</a> </p><p></p><p>Note that I didn't go after the high number of interceptions; they are somewhat correlated year to year. I expected this as the secondary skill and DL pressure should be repeatable to some extent. But not a lot ..... what should be most repeatable of total yards only had a year to year correlation coefficient (R2) of 24%. And interceptions were 6%.</p><p></p><p>And then I found this where the Michigan guy is still obsessed with fumbles. <a href="http://mgoblog.com/content/maximizing-your-fumble-luck" target="_blank">http://mgoblog.com/content/maximizing-your-fumble-luck</a> Here are his conclusions:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Sacks produce fumble at an obscene rate compared to any other play</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Don’t skimp on the fundamentals, poor snaps and hand-offs are a major source of fumbles</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Positive plays are good for the offense, getting past the line of scrimmage greatly reduces the chance that a fumble occurs, but increases the defense’s chances at a recovery if one is forced</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Hitting ball carriers behind the line of scrimmage is a good way for a defense to generate fumbles</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL! Punt returns are the most likely play to result in a lost fumble.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Not all fumbles are created equally, defenses recover nearly 70% of fumbles that are forced and only 45% when they are not.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Quarterbacks are fumble prone but their teams are better at recovering them than other players’ fumbles</li> </ul><p>So unless UGAg starts passing and we get sacks, we have to hope that they are careless with the ball. They have fumbled 18 times this year, or about 1.5 times a game. So us recovering 1 to 2 fumbles would be huge ...... as well as not giving any up ourselves ...... and we've had 16.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GTNavyNuke, post: 105331, member: 322"] We have to get the turnovers. Fumble recovery is luck based ..... here's a Michigan article on how fumbles are random. He only looks at year to year, but shows that the correlation year to year is negligible as compared to say offensive yards gained or defensive yards lost. [url]http://mgoblog.com/diaries/turnovers-and-randomness[/url] Note that I didn't go after the high number of interceptions; they are somewhat correlated year to year. I expected this as the secondary skill and DL pressure should be repeatable to some extent. But not a lot ..... what should be most repeatable of total yards only had a year to year correlation coefficient (R2) of 24%. And interceptions were 6%. And then I found this where the Michigan guy is still obsessed with fumbles. [url]http://mgoblog.com/content/maximizing-your-fumble-luck[/url] Here are his conclusions: [LIST] [*]Sacks produce fumble at an obscene rate compared to any other play [*]Don’t skimp on the fundamentals, poor snaps and hand-offs are a major source of fumbles [*]Positive plays are good for the offense, getting past the line of scrimmage greatly reduces the chance that a fumble occurs, but increases the defense’s chances at a recovery if one is forced [*]Hitting ball carriers behind the line of scrimmage is a good way for a defense to generate fumbles [*]HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL! Punt returns are the most likely play to result in a lost fumble. [*]Not all fumbles are created equally, defenses recover nearly 70% of fumbles that are forced and only 45% when they are not. [*]Quarterbacks are fumble prone but their teams are better at recovering them than other players’ fumbles [/LIST] So unless UGAg starts passing and we get sacks, we have to hope that they are careless with the ball. They have fumbled 18 times this year, or about 1.5 times a game. So us recovering 1 to 2 fumbles would be huge ...... as well as not giving any up ourselves ...... and we've had 16. [/QUOTE]
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Comparison of GT Versus Clemson, UGAg and FSU Football Outsiders Stats -- And Hope
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