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Can we stay competitive in the NIL era?
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<blockquote data-quote="CEB" data-source="post: 871597" data-attributes="member: 4905"><p>Kids sitting out - that cow is out of the barn. No change to playoff / bowl structure is going to stop that trend. There’s just too much money for guaranteed NFL talents to risk injury for another couple of games. I honestly don’t think the profile / importance of the games matter either. It won’t be long before you see a couple top players sit out of CFP games. </p><p>Two interesting scenarios present:</p><p>1. NIL rules (right now) would suggest that there could be a financial incentive to post season. I could see NIL paying bowl bonuses or buying guys crazy insurance policies for kids in case of injury. All it will take is for one top player to opt out of a “meaningful” bowl and some booster will seek a solution. </p><p>2. Playoff won’t solve the opt outs, and honestly it may exacerbate the issue (if you consider it an issue). If a kid thinks one game isn’t worth the risk of career ending injury, why would they embrace the prospect of playing 3 or 4? What could be really fun and interesting is how the second tier Power 5 programs would adjust recruiting if playoffs expand. Like basketball, several teams may start recruiting for 4 year guys who won’t likely opt out for NFL money. Top seeds could suffer “opt out” attrition late in the season and all of a sudden, we have a really fun playoff system with opportunities for some unexpected teams to win championships. </p><p>I suspect the powers that be would step in to try to somehow mitigate that because initial reaction would be that we can’t have these big boy powers devaluing the playoff, but honestly, it could be more fun for fans of the other 85-90 football programs. </p><p>I don’t see the “super conference” thing working out as neatly as others anticipate but there is certainly no shortage of programs who would sell out to be an NFL development league. In my opinion, they can have it. I hope it implodes. As much as I hated the “one and done” notion for college basketball, I wish the NFL would start taking kids sooner, as I feel like it might actually serve to stabilize college football</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="CEB, post: 871597, member: 4905"] Kids sitting out - that cow is out of the barn. No change to playoff / bowl structure is going to stop that trend. There’s just too much money for guaranteed NFL talents to risk injury for another couple of games. I honestly don’t think the profile / importance of the games matter either. It won’t be long before you see a couple top players sit out of CFP games. Two interesting scenarios present: 1. NIL rules (right now) would suggest that there could be a financial incentive to post season. I could see NIL paying bowl bonuses or buying guys crazy insurance policies for kids in case of injury. All it will take is for one top player to opt out of a “meaningful” bowl and some booster will seek a solution. 2. Playoff won’t solve the opt outs, and honestly it may exacerbate the issue (if you consider it an issue). If a kid thinks one game isn’t worth the risk of career ending injury, why would they embrace the prospect of playing 3 or 4? What could be really fun and interesting is how the second tier Power 5 programs would adjust recruiting if playoffs expand. Like basketball, several teams may start recruiting for 4 year guys who won’t likely opt out for NFL money. Top seeds could suffer “opt out” attrition late in the season and all of a sudden, we have a really fun playoff system with opportunities for some unexpected teams to win championships. I suspect the powers that be would step in to try to somehow mitigate that because initial reaction would be that we can’t have these big boy powers devaluing the playoff, but honestly, it could be more fun for fans of the other 85-90 football programs. I don’t see the “super conference” thing working out as neatly as others anticipate but there is certainly no shortage of programs who would sell out to be an NFL development league. In my opinion, they can have it. I hope it implodes. As much as I hated the “one and done” notion for college basketball, I wish the NFL would start taking kids sooner, as I feel like it might actually serve to stabilize college football [/QUOTE]
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