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<blockquote data-quote="lv20gt" data-source="post: 1004692" data-attributes="member: 2299"><p>Yeah, real low seeds (12 and up) historically have no chance of making the final four. But that group is almost exclusively auto bids from low and mid major conferences. The lack of success of that group isn't really a justification for the stance of mid pack p6 teams not going further than mid major teams. </p><p></p><p>This year the highest at large was 10th seed. Last year it was 11. 2022 it was 12. 2021 it was 11. In 2019 it was 11th. 2018 it was 11. In 2017 it was 11th. So yeah, most sub 11 teams are auto bids. That's kind of the point people are making. The auto bids teams that are the lowest of the seeds have basically no real chance at the main goal of the tournament. </p><p></p><p>In terms of low seeded P5 teams because they happen on occasion.</p><p></p><p>2022 was 12th seed indiana as an at large. They won the play in game and lost the first round. There was also 12th seed Gtown back in 2021 on an auto bid out of the big east that lost the first round. 2021 also saw 12th seed Oregon State out of the pac 12 auto bid that lost in the elite 8. 2019 saw a 12th seed Oregon make the sweet 16. 2014 saw NCSU and Xavier as both 12 seeds in the play in. NCSU won and then lost in the first round in OT. 2013 was wild with 3 12th seeds from P5 conferences. Cal made it as an at large, and won one game. Ole miss was an auto and won one game. Oregon was an auto and made the sweet 16. 2012 saw Cal from the Pac 12 and USF from the Big east play each other as play in teams at the 12 spot. USF won the match up and also won their first round game. </p><p>2011 Clemson was a 12th seed at large, won the play in game, and lost in the first round. in 2009 Wisconsin and Arizona were 12 seeds. Wisconsin won one game. Arizona made the sweet 16. Miss state was a 13th seed auto that lost in the first round. In 2008 12th seed Villinova made the sweet 16. Georgia was a 13th seed automatic qualifier that lost in the first round. I stopped there because low seed P5 teams made me remember that stupid situation. </p><p></p><p>So not counting the play in games with two such teams, in that span, there were 15 cases and here are the rounds they got to.</p><p></p><p>1st round - 6 </p><p>2nd round - 4</p><p>sweet 16 - 4</p><p>elite 8 - 1</p><p></p><p>Now I don't have the numbers for the non P6 11/12 seeds from that time to compare, but I have to think that is a very significant over performance relative to the rest. And the reality is the low major teams who get auto bids aren't just taking spots from middle of the road power conference teams. Teams like Indiana State, Princton, SMU are also hurt by it as well. </p><p></p><p>Lastly, according to <a href="https://fansided.com/posts/march-madness-first-round-upset-winning-percentage-each-seed-01hsezqspktf" target="_blank">this article </a> the winning percentage in first round games take a huge jump going from 5 seed to 4 seed going from 65 to 79% against 12 vs 13 seed respectively which is right on that cusp of the better auto bids who would still probably get in anyways vs the auto bids that are in only because they get an auto bid (For example of the 12 seeds this year 3 are in the 50-56 range of the NET) where the highest 13 seed is 74 in the NET. The jump on either side of that is 3% and 6.5%. </p><p></p><p>Personally, I'm fine, because it acts as a pseudo bye reward for teams who had really great years, while also giving us the occasional opportunity to feel good about a real underdog story for a night, and a chance to laugh at some other team's misfortune. But there is also a very real argument to be made that the NCAAT would overall be better and more competitive without autobids from conference that don't really have a team of that level. Although I would say if you argue against autobids you should argue against them entirely.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="lv20gt, post: 1004692, member: 2299"] Yeah, real low seeds (12 and up) historically have no chance of making the final four. But that group is almost exclusively auto bids from low and mid major conferences. The lack of success of that group isn't really a justification for the stance of mid pack p6 teams not going further than mid major teams. This year the highest at large was 10th seed. Last year it was 11. 2022 it was 12. 2021 it was 11. In 2019 it was 11th. 2018 it was 11. In 2017 it was 11th. So yeah, most sub 11 teams are auto bids. That's kind of the point people are making. The auto bids teams that are the lowest of the seeds have basically no real chance at the main goal of the tournament. In terms of low seeded P5 teams because they happen on occasion. 2022 was 12th seed indiana as an at large. They won the play in game and lost the first round. There was also 12th seed Gtown back in 2021 on an auto bid out of the big east that lost the first round. 2021 also saw 12th seed Oregon State out of the pac 12 auto bid that lost in the elite 8. 2019 saw a 12th seed Oregon make the sweet 16. 2014 saw NCSU and Xavier as both 12 seeds in the play in. NCSU won and then lost in the first round in OT. 2013 was wild with 3 12th seeds from P5 conferences. Cal made it as an at large, and won one game. Ole miss was an auto and won one game. Oregon was an auto and made the sweet 16. 2012 saw Cal from the Pac 12 and USF from the Big east play each other as play in teams at the 12 spot. USF won the match up and also won their first round game. 2011 Clemson was a 12th seed at large, won the play in game, and lost in the first round. in 2009 Wisconsin and Arizona were 12 seeds. Wisconsin won one game. Arizona made the sweet 16. Miss state was a 13th seed auto that lost in the first round. In 2008 12th seed Villinova made the sweet 16. Georgia was a 13th seed automatic qualifier that lost in the first round. I stopped there because low seed P5 teams made me remember that stupid situation. So not counting the play in games with two such teams, in that span, there were 15 cases and here are the rounds they got to. 1st round - 6 2nd round - 4 sweet 16 - 4 elite 8 - 1 Now I don't have the numbers for the non P6 11/12 seeds from that time to compare, but I have to think that is a very significant over performance relative to the rest. And the reality is the low major teams who get auto bids aren't just taking spots from middle of the road power conference teams. Teams like Indiana State, Princton, SMU are also hurt by it as well. Lastly, according to [URL='https://fansided.com/posts/march-madness-first-round-upset-winning-percentage-each-seed-01hsezqspktf']this article [/URL] the winning percentage in first round games take a huge jump going from 5 seed to 4 seed going from 65 to 79% against 12 vs 13 seed respectively which is right on that cusp of the better auto bids who would still probably get in anyways vs the auto bids that are in only because they get an auto bid (For example of the 12 seeds this year 3 are in the 50-56 range of the NET) where the highest 13 seed is 74 in the NET. The jump on either side of that is 3% and 6.5%. Personally, I'm fine, because it acts as a pseudo bye reward for teams who had really great years, while also giving us the occasional opportunity to feel good about a real underdog story for a night, and a chance to laugh at some other team's misfortune. But there is also a very real argument to be made that the NCAAT would overall be better and more competitive without autobids from conference that don't really have a team of that level. Although I would say if you argue against autobids you should argue against them entirely. [/QUOTE]
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