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Being "10 points away"
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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 845157" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>These are FCS numbers only (different data source). The 10 points is really "point differential". Maybe it was Yogi Berra, but this is the stats version of "did you score more than the other guy", but it's not necessarily wins--I think Nebraska is positive on this graph and it didn't convert to wins. </p><p></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The average scoring differential is -0.1. So being average is losing. Winning wealth is unevenly distributed. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The scoring differential standard deviation is 12 points (11.967, so close enough). </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">UGA is #1 with a +31.1 differential. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Ohio State, Alabama, Cincinnati, and Michigan round out the top 5 in that order</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The bottom 5 are Florida International, Kansas, Temple, UConn, and UMass, in that order. UMass is the worst, but they're all in "avert your eyes" territory. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Western Michigan is your poster child for average with a -0.1 scoring differential, at #70. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Your median teams are Washington and Central Michigan, at +1.9 and +1.6 points per game, respectively. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">NCST and Boise State are 1 deviation above average and "good" at 11.9 and 12.1 points per game, respectively. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Tulane sets the edge of "bad" at -12.1 point differential, and is ranked #109</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Georgia Tech is #103 at -9.7 point differential. This might be Stansbury's number. If so, 10 points doesn't get us to "good"; it gets us to mediocre, or still relatively weak for a P5 team. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Liberty, Penn State, and Kentucky are as good as we are bad, at +9.5, +9.6, and +9.9. They're #26-#24. </li> </ul><p>So, to be a "good" or an "excellent" team, we don't need a 10 point swing, we need about a 20 point swing. </p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]11691[/ATTACH]</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 845157, member: 282"] These are FCS numbers only (different data source). The 10 points is really "point differential". Maybe it was Yogi Berra, but this is the stats version of "did you score more than the other guy", but it's not necessarily wins--I think Nebraska is positive on this graph and it didn't convert to wins. [LIST] [*]The average scoring differential is -0.1. So being average is losing. Winning wealth is unevenly distributed. [*]The scoring differential standard deviation is 12 points (11.967, so close enough). [*]UGA is #1 with a +31.1 differential. [*]Ohio State, Alabama, Cincinnati, and Michigan round out the top 5 in that order [*]The bottom 5 are Florida International, Kansas, Temple, UConn, and UMass, in that order. UMass is the worst, but they're all in "avert your eyes" territory. [*]Western Michigan is your poster child for average with a -0.1 scoring differential, at #70. [*]Your median teams are Washington and Central Michigan, at +1.9 and +1.6 points per game, respectively. [*]NCST and Boise State are 1 deviation above average and "good" at 11.9 and 12.1 points per game, respectively. [*]Tulane sets the edge of "bad" at -12.1 point differential, and is ranked #109 [*]Georgia Tech is #103 at -9.7 point differential. This might be Stansbury's number. If so, 10 points doesn't get us to "good"; it gets us to mediocre, or still relatively weak for a P5 team. [*]Liberty, Penn State, and Kentucky are as good as we are bad, at +9.5, +9.6, and +9.9. They're #26-#24. [/LIST] So, to be a "good" or an "excellent" team, we don't need a 10 point swing, we need about a 20 point swing. [ATTACH type="full"]11691[/ATTACH] [/QUOTE]
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