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BC by the numbers
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<blockquote data-quote="lv20gt" data-source="post: 754740" data-attributes="member: 2299"><p>It really is amazing how similar these teams are in many ways. GT has the significant edge in TD% in the redzone by about 14%. However, BC has the overall scoring % advantage thanks to FGs. Overall both teams have roughly the same expected points per red zone attempt. Overall, GT is worse in giving away the ball but better at taking it away. GT is better moving the ball in ypp by about half a yard and BC is better defensively by about the same margin. GT is averaging about one more 20+ yard play a game compared to BC but BC is better on not giving up big plays (although still bad). Penalties are about even. </p><p></p><p>One thing that gives me hope is that BC is really bad with giving up sacks. They've given up 18 in 5 games which is 4th worst in the country. Meanwhile we are pretty good at not giving up sacks at 6 total in 5 games. BC has a slight lead in sacks, 2 in 5 games. </p><p></p><p>All in all I see a fairly even matchup which will likely be come down to which team can avoid the things that prevent scoring opportunities. For us that is TOs and missed FGs. For them it is sacks and having to settle for FGAs in the redzone too often. I'm hoping that we can rely on the running game more this week and limit the pressure that Sims has to deal with. I think overall we get the win based on us having a better running game and being slightly better against the run.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="lv20gt, post: 754740, member: 2299"] It really is amazing how similar these teams are in many ways. GT has the significant edge in TD% in the redzone by about 14%. However, BC has the overall scoring % advantage thanks to FGs. Overall both teams have roughly the same expected points per red zone attempt. Overall, GT is worse in giving away the ball but better at taking it away. GT is better moving the ball in ypp by about half a yard and BC is better defensively by about the same margin. GT is averaging about one more 20+ yard play a game compared to BC but BC is better on not giving up big plays (although still bad). Penalties are about even. One thing that gives me hope is that BC is really bad with giving up sacks. They've given up 18 in 5 games which is 4th worst in the country. Meanwhile we are pretty good at not giving up sacks at 6 total in 5 games. BC has a slight lead in sacks, 2 in 5 games. All in all I see a fairly even matchup which will likely be come down to which team can avoid the things that prevent scoring opportunities. For us that is TOs and missed FGs. For them it is sacks and having to settle for FGAs in the redzone too often. I'm hoping that we can rely on the running game more this week and limit the pressure that Sims has to deal with. I think overall we get the win based on us having a better running game and being slightly better against the run. [/QUOTE]
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