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@AE 87 Can you give us the data?
- Thread starter Longestday
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AE 87
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@Longestday I'm not sure about what you're asking, but here's the footballoutsiders' FEI rankings, including separate rankings for offense, defense and special teams:
So, the short answer is these games seem to me to be pick-em's. The best comparison to what we've faced so far is Miami (17 in the FEI). In offensive and defensive efficiency (OFEI, DFEI) U[sic]Ga, and FSU are comparable in their profile with each other and with Miami.
There's some good-news bad-news with this. We scored pretty efficiently against Miami, 4 pts/drive. However, we had trouble stopping them. We were in good spots, but our two interceptions in that game, in my opinion, really were more the result of bad throws by Kaya. So, the offenses we'll be facing will be better than Miami's in some crucial ways, but our D seems to have greatly improved since that game.
When you consider that GT's #57 DFEI includes the first 8 weeks (7 games) where we were awful, we may be even more competitive than this table shows. As I posted in a previous thread, our pts/drive allowed over the last 4 weeks has been 1.48 and the same as TCU over the season. As evident in this table, TCU over the season is #9 in DFEI. Even if the offenses we've faced over the last four weeks are not as strong as TCU's opposition over the season, this likely translates into a top 30 D.
The added difficulty arises from the fact that it's hard to measure FSU given that they seem to be spotting teams the first half.
I think we have the advantage against georgie since I think we're better than them under pressure this year. However, FSU has had the same kind of "resiliency" this year and can put pressure on us by scoring quick. Exciting times.
So, the short answer is these games seem to me to be pick-em's. The best comparison to what we've faced so far is Miami (17 in the FEI). In offensive and defensive efficiency (OFEI, DFEI) U[sic]Ga, and FSU are comparable in their profile with each other and with Miami.
There's some good-news bad-news with this. We scored pretty efficiently against Miami, 4 pts/drive. However, we had trouble stopping them. We were in good spots, but our two interceptions in that game, in my opinion, really were more the result of bad throws by Kaya. So, the offenses we'll be facing will be better than Miami's in some crucial ways, but our D seems to have greatly improved since that game.
When you consider that GT's #57 DFEI includes the first 8 weeks (7 games) where we were awful, we may be even more competitive than this table shows. As I posted in a previous thread, our pts/drive allowed over the last 4 weeks has been 1.48 and the same as TCU over the season. As evident in this table, TCU over the season is #9 in DFEI. Even if the offenses we've faced over the last four weeks are not as strong as TCU's opposition over the season, this likely translates into a top 30 D.
The added difficulty arises from the fact that it's hard to measure FSU given that they seem to be spotting teams the first half.
I think we have the advantage against georgie since I think we're better than them under pressure this year. However, FSU has had the same kind of "resiliency" this year and can put pressure on us by scoring quick. Exciting times.
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I like FEI too, but it doesn't seem to be a great predictor.
AE 87
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It's primarily a measure of past performance. That's why I've used it for a ball park measure rather than a strict predictor.
For example, the teams which have given our O the hardest time, VPI and CU, happen to be #1 and #2 in DFEI. You can get a feel for expectations of how each unit will perform. By comparing past performance against comparably ranked offenses and defenses, you can get an idea of how well we'll perform. So, I posted this after the UVA game:
So, yeah, "pick-em" is the best I can do using FEI data.
thwgjacket
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Might be interesting to note that a couple of years ago after Groh was fired our D would give up points in the first half and then give up very few in the 2nd half. Very similar to what FSU is doing now. Connection? Charles Kelly.
Supersizethatorder-mutt
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Has anybody heard the KO time for the ACC CG yet?
augustabuzz
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Supersizethatorder-mutt
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Actually, that still shows 7:45 OR 8, which is what I found earlier. But being only 15 minutes difference, I don't guess it really matters.
Are you actually in Augusta, and are you going? I am in Augusta also
DTGT
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Piss-poor game planning + good half-time adjustments?
thwgjacket
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He may be over-preparing for the game. He must have good halftime adjustments like you said because his defenses always play better after halftime. Maybe instead of focusing his guys on what the other team will most likely run before a game he is trying to focus them on anything the other team might run. He then sees what the other team is trying to do and is able to counteract it with halftime adjustments. I'm just guessing though.
Maybe it's like school. I always had friends who would try to know everything in order to get "extra points" on a written exam. They would always do a little worse than me because I would just focus on what was most likely to be on the exam.
augustabuzz
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Yes, I'm in Augusta, but I won't be able to make Charlotte.
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I like the F+/Combined Ratings better http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus ..... the "improvements" over FEI are listed at the top of the page. I don't see any comparison on your link for F+ but since it is constantly evolving and fairly new, I'm not surprised.
The F+ with us 14th and FSU at 10th seems more in line with my eyeballs for the limited games I watch. The real problem is there is so much variability in team performance week to week that any prediction methodology tops out in the 76% overall picking accuracy. Kind of like radioactive decay, it's easy to predict the number of decays in a minute when there are more than billions of atoms but if you tried to predict 10 decays you be wrong most of the time. Or even better quantum tunneling .......
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And there's a problem when you boil anything down to one number. Even when you look at "Rushing Defense" and try to figure out who'll be good against us, you can't say the other rushing offenses prepare teams much for ours. There's that point where there's just a bad part of the 11 on 11 matchup where everything goes sideways.
But I like the Football Outsider numbers to help take out the optimism and pessimism and give a true-er idea of how strong a team is.
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Actually, here is a post updated through this week that shows how Football Outsiders predictions are going with new new systems and new old systems. Against the spread .... 50/50. Picking winners ..... depends on the confidence of the pick... but overall right at 75% or the upper limit seen by other systems this year. http://www.footballstudyhall.com/20...ootball-projections-predictions-week-13-fplus
Animal02
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It did so well predicting the UNC Duke game
Duke by 34.9 (53.4 - 18.5) Chance of winning 91.8%
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Absolutely, but on the year when 90+% confident they are 122-10. http://www.footballstudyhall.com/20...ootball-projections-predictions-week-13-fplus
Did I ever say there's a reason I don't bet on CFB? I felt Fluke was a Fluke, but that feeling was clouded by emotion and hope .... much better bet to bet on the stock market as long as the central banks are all temporarily inflating the stock market .... of course till something spins out of their rigging control and the market regresses to mean values .....
Did I ever say there's a reason I don't bet on CFB? I felt Fluke was a Fluke, but that feeling was clouded by emotion and hope .... much better bet to bet on the stock market as long as the central banks are all temporarily inflating the stock market .... of course till something spins out of their rigging control and the market regresses to mean values .....
Animal02
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I never bet sports either.......and hardly ever anything else for that matter....never have gotten the allure of casinos (though I get the psychology of them).......I work to much for $$$$......
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I like Football Study Hall--that's probably a better source than the one I used.