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"Aaron Murray should be the #1 pick in the NFL draft...
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<blockquote data-quote="Legal Jacket" data-source="post: 35876" data-attributes="member: 601"><p>a) Murray isn't even close to the top. Bridgewater is it by far. Then Bortles, although not as polished, and Carr. I'd probably put Mettenberger, Murray, and McCarron all in the same range (3rd/4th round). Murray is certainly good, but he doesn't have great physical stats and his passing stats weren't quite as good as those of Bridgewater, Carr, etc.</p><p></p><p>b) A little bit. Russell Wilson is twice the athlete that Aaron Murray is. In terms of pocket passers, Brees is the exception rather than the rule. Aside from Brees, there aren't other recent QBs who are both short and can't make big plays with their feet like Vick (6'0) or Wilson. Artcile below has some interesting stats. QB rating under 6'2 fluctuates a lot, with 6-1 and 5-11 QBs having an average rating of under 72. The minimum average for a height 6-2 or over, though, is 76.3, and the rest are all over 77. So there is a statistical correlation between height and average rating, although the difference isn't that great.</p><p></p><p><a href="http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/tall-task-does-height-matter-for-nfl-quarterbacks/22067/" target="_blank">http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/tall-task-does-height-matter-for-nfl-quarterbacks/22067/</a></p><p></p><p>c) not at all, especially with high (first or second round) picks. Look at Marcus Lattimore. There's a good chance that he may not ever be the same player again. There's also a good chance he gets hurt. Things like blown knees, especially for a RB, are a giant red flag. It's like buying a house - why would you spend money on a house that had severe (but supposedly fixed) roof problems when you can get another one that is just as good for the same price. The difference is guys like Bridgewater and Manziel are irreplaceable talents, where there isn't a house like them on the market. For guys like Murray, though, someone like McCarron is pretty close. If you were picking in the 3rd and had a choice between McCarron with a clean bill of health and Murray with a torn up knee, the choice is easy imo.</p><p></p><p>d) Not a fan of QB first picks. I'm a much bigger fan of team need. I wouldn't pick Clowney because of the work ethic questions, but if you have a need at DE he would be a good choice at #1. I like Jake Matthews a lot. To me, you want someone with very limited downside. Big offensive tackles I believe are typically the most sure thing you can get. Greg Robinson (6-5, 320) would be a good choice, but maybe at 5-6, not #1. While I think Sammy Watkins will be a good player, I'm not a fan of early picks on WRs that relied primarily on speed in college, since the DBs in the pros will be a lot faster. If it's someone like Calvin, who used speed, hands, jumping, and height, to be a badass that's one thing.</p><p></p><p>Really though, I would probably just take Matthews in this draft and then move on. He should have at least 10-13 years of being a dominant tackle in the pros.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Legal Jacket, post: 35876, member: 601"] a) Murray isn't even close to the top. Bridgewater is it by far. Then Bortles, although not as polished, and Carr. I'd probably put Mettenberger, Murray, and McCarron all in the same range (3rd/4th round). Murray is certainly good, but he doesn't have great physical stats and his passing stats weren't quite as good as those of Bridgewater, Carr, etc. b) A little bit. Russell Wilson is twice the athlete that Aaron Murray is. In terms of pocket passers, Brees is the exception rather than the rule. Aside from Brees, there aren't other recent QBs who are both short and can't make big plays with their feet like Vick (6'0) or Wilson. Artcile below has some interesting stats. QB rating under 6'2 fluctuates a lot, with 6-1 and 5-11 QBs having an average rating of under 72. The minimum average for a height 6-2 or over, though, is 76.3, and the rest are all over 77. So there is a statistical correlation between height and average rating, although the difference isn't that great. [url]http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/tall-task-does-height-matter-for-nfl-quarterbacks/22067/[/url] c) not at all, especially with high (first or second round) picks. Look at Marcus Lattimore. There's a good chance that he may not ever be the same player again. There's also a good chance he gets hurt. Things like blown knees, especially for a RB, are a giant red flag. It's like buying a house - why would you spend money on a house that had severe (but supposedly fixed) roof problems when you can get another one that is just as good for the same price. The difference is guys like Bridgewater and Manziel are irreplaceable talents, where there isn't a house like them on the market. For guys like Murray, though, someone like McCarron is pretty close. If you were picking in the 3rd and had a choice between McCarron with a clean bill of health and Murray with a torn up knee, the choice is easy imo. d) Not a fan of QB first picks. I'm a much bigger fan of team need. I wouldn't pick Clowney because of the work ethic questions, but if you have a need at DE he would be a good choice at #1. I like Jake Matthews a lot. To me, you want someone with very limited downside. Big offensive tackles I believe are typically the most sure thing you can get. Greg Robinson (6-5, 320) would be a good choice, but maybe at 5-6, not #1. While I think Sammy Watkins will be a good player, I'm not a fan of early picks on WRs that relied primarily on speed in college, since the DBs in the pros will be a lot faster. If it's someone like Calvin, who used speed, hands, jumping, and height, to be a badass that's one thing. Really though, I would probably just take Matthews in this draft and then move on. He should have at least 10-13 years of being a dominant tackle in the pros. [/QUOTE]
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