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Georgia Tech Football
A Thread to Rehash GT HC Comparisons
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<blockquote data-quote="Vespidae" data-source="post: 760896" data-attributes="member: 2957"><p>Here's an interesting factoid. </p><p></p><p>I was perusing stats actually used by coaches rather than those used by data analysts to predict game outcomes. </p><p></p><p>The number one stat with the highest predictive value for game winners? </p><p></p><p>It's <strong>Net Yards per Pass Attempt</strong>. Passing. Not running. </p><p></p><p>Even the best running teams have an average yards per carry in the 4-5 yard range. Teams with strong passing offenses generate 9-12 yards per attempt. In the pro game, this one stat predicts wins at an 80%+ rate since data was first collected in 1958. Alabama is around 12. Tech is around 7.3</p><p></p><p>The second stat most used by coaches? Turnovers. If you are -1 in turnovers, you lose 75% of the time. If -2, 83% of the time. If -3, it's 94% you lose. </p><p></p><p>I reviewed the stats for this year so far. In the games we won, we had NY/A of 7.8 and 11.7 compared to FSU (3.6) and Louisville (5.9). In all other games, our competitors have drummed us on passing. Clemson had 9.5 NY/A compared to our 2.6. </p><p></p><p>Moral? High percentage passes of 12-15 yards. No turnovers. And you should win. </p><p></p><p>While we have 7.3 NY/A ... if we give up a lot in sacks due to an inexperienced line ... it will drop like a rock. Insta-loss.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Vespidae, post: 760896, member: 2957"] Here's an interesting factoid. I was perusing stats actually used by coaches rather than those used by data analysts to predict game outcomes. The number one stat with the highest predictive value for game winners? It's [B]Net Yards per Pass Attempt[/B]. Passing. Not running. Even the best running teams have an average yards per carry in the 4-5 yard range. Teams with strong passing offenses generate 9-12 yards per attempt. In the pro game, this one stat predicts wins at an 80%+ rate since data was first collected in 1958. Alabama is around 12. Tech is around 7.3 The second stat most used by coaches? Turnovers. If you are -1 in turnovers, you lose 75% of the time. If -2, 83% of the time. If -3, it's 94% you lose. I reviewed the stats for this year so far. In the games we won, we had NY/A of 7.8 and 11.7 compared to FSU (3.6) and Louisville (5.9). In all other games, our competitors have drummed us on passing. Clemson had 9.5 NY/A compared to our 2.6. Moral? High percentage passes of 12-15 yards. No turnovers. And you should win. While we have 7.3 NY/A ... if we give up a lot in sacks due to an inexperienced line ... it will drop like a rock. Insta-loss. [/QUOTE]
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A Thread to Rehash GT HC Comparisons
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