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77% of the starters for NFL Championships weren't 4 or 5 Stars
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<blockquote data-quote="RonJohn" data-source="post: 283597" data-attributes="member: 2426"><p>I would go even further and say that ALL positions are very hard to predict at the next level. It has been stated quite often that you can pick out the very top of high school players. However, once you get beyond the very top, it is a crap shoot. If a LB is 6'2" and 250Lbs in high school, is he going to grow more? Is he going to work out hard? Is he going to study the game hard? If a LB in high school is 5'9" and 200Lbs, is he going to grow in a year or two? Is he going to work out harder because no one believes in him? Is he going to study harder? </p><p></p><p>I am convinced that I could put together a computer algorithm to rate players based on size, speed, and high school stats and do as well as the recruiting services at picking players that will become All Americans. If machine learning was added to the algorithm to compare stats vs strength of competition(like Massey stats), an algorithm could probably do better than the services.</p><p></p><p>I can give two examples before the services. When he was in high school, everyone believed that Hershel Walker was bigger, faster, and stronger than most college players. He got to college and proved them right. When Marcus Dupree was in high school, everyone believed that he was bigger, faster, and stronger than most college players. He got to college and played very well for one year. He never played in college after that. Both would have been rated as the top prospect in the country. One panned out, the other did not.</p><p></p><p>People get entertainment value out of paying attention to such numbers. However, to put any more value than just casual entertainment to the ratings is ridiculous.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="RonJohn, post: 283597, member: 2426"] I would go even further and say that ALL positions are very hard to predict at the next level. It has been stated quite often that you can pick out the very top of high school players. However, once you get beyond the very top, it is a crap shoot. If a LB is 6'2" and 250Lbs in high school, is he going to grow more? Is he going to work out hard? Is he going to study the game hard? If a LB in high school is 5'9" and 200Lbs, is he going to grow in a year or two? Is he going to work out harder because no one believes in him? Is he going to study harder? I am convinced that I could put together a computer algorithm to rate players based on size, speed, and high school stats and do as well as the recruiting services at picking players that will become All Americans. If machine learning was added to the algorithm to compare stats vs strength of competition(like Massey stats), an algorithm could probably do better than the services. I can give two examples before the services. When he was in high school, everyone believed that Hershel Walker was bigger, faster, and stronger than most college players. He got to college and proved them right. When Marcus Dupree was in high school, everyone believed that he was bigger, faster, and stronger than most college players. He got to college and played very well for one year. He never played in college after that. Both would have been rated as the top prospect in the country. One panned out, the other did not. People get entertainment value out of paying attention to such numbers. However, to put any more value than just casual entertainment to the ratings is ridiculous. [/QUOTE]
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77% of the starters for NFL Championships weren't 4 or 5 Stars
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