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77% of the starters for NFL Championships weren't 4 or 5 Stars
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<blockquote data-quote="33jacket" data-source="post: 283108" data-attributes="member: 628"><p>4-5 star recruits are less than 23percent of the incoming freshman classes. Its like 10 percent of the recruits are 4-5 stars. 2-3 stars is 90 percent. This means that this should be the same number in the Nfl if u assume a pure one for one in kids panning out.</p><p></p><p>But its not. 4-5 stars in this example is 23 percent. Which means that 4-5 stars are outperforming their statistical load by 2-3x any given year. There are only 300 or so 4-5 star recruits a year.</p><p></p><p>So basically what this says, and there are other stats for the greater nfl that back it up, is of course 4-5 star players will be less since pure numbers volume suggest that and no analysis is perfect. But the percentage of 4-5 star players in the nfl is higher than the percentage of 4-5 star players in the Ncaa. The ncaa is 90/10. The nfl its higher. </p><p></p><p>In the nfl overall in many drafts the numbers show around a 45 percent translation. That is HUGE. if you were a 5 star guy your nfl draft status is 45 percent chance to be drafted.</p><p></p><p>This means there is a better correlation to being 4-5 stars and making the nfl than not; by a wide margin.</p><p></p><p>So for me, the stats do bear out on a percentage basis that being a 4-5 star ranked recruit is better than not by a wide margin. But its a human thing. B</p><p>No ranking is perfect. You can have a team of mature 3 star guys be better than one with 4 star guys of course. We are talking general statistics</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="33jacket, post: 283108, member: 628"] 4-5 star recruits are less than 23percent of the incoming freshman classes. Its like 10 percent of the recruits are 4-5 stars. 2-3 stars is 90 percent. This means that this should be the same number in the Nfl if u assume a pure one for one in kids panning out. But its not. 4-5 stars in this example is 23 percent. Which means that 4-5 stars are outperforming their statistical load by 2-3x any given year. There are only 300 or so 4-5 star recruits a year. So basically what this says, and there are other stats for the greater nfl that back it up, is of course 4-5 star players will be less since pure numbers volume suggest that and no analysis is perfect. But the percentage of 4-5 star players in the nfl is higher than the percentage of 4-5 star players in the Ncaa. The ncaa is 90/10. The nfl its higher. In the nfl overall in many drafts the numbers show around a 45 percent translation. That is HUGE. if you were a 5 star guy your nfl draft status is 45 percent chance to be drafted. This means there is a better correlation to being 4-5 stars and making the nfl than not; by a wide margin. So for me, the stats do bear out on a percentage basis that being a 4-5 star ranked recruit is better than not by a wide margin. But its a human thing. B No ranking is perfect. You can have a team of mature 3 star guys be better than one with 4 star guys of course. We are talking general statistics [/QUOTE]
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77% of the starters for NFL Championships weren't 4 or 5 Stars
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