I'd agree that those are the 4 most likely after the hopefully three we definitely win.
The biggest issue is that 3 of those 4 are going to be on the road and the one home game is against the team out of those 4 I think is going to be the strongest - and definitely has the best QB.
For the record, I have consistently expected 4 wins since this first exercise back in the spring. I racked and stacked our opponents recently from the most likely for a win to the least likely, and without the benefit of FPI rankings.
1. W.Carolina home
2. Duke homecoming.
3. UVa home
4. VPI away
5. UCF away
6. FSU away
7. UNC away
8. Pitt away
9. ThugU home
10. Miss home
11. Clemson "home" at MB, but still likely outnumbered by Clems
12. dwags away
W.Carolina and Duke are simply MANDATORY wins or my yard will be looking pretty spiffy this fall. Those may be the only two games we're favored all year. I had UVa as slightly better on a neutral, but a win since it's on the Flats. I had VPI a +/- tossup, and since it's away that hurts, but it's the next likely win to reach 4 wins in my book.
Bottom line is we need to win 2 of 3 against UVa, VPI and UCF to get to 4 wins on the season, and UCF is both better and a road game. That early UCF game will be our canary in the coal mine indicator for how things will go. I just think the rest are out of reach. The final stretch where 4 of the last 5 games we'll be road underdogs with the sole home game ThugU is just brutal, like the 6 game losing streak to finish last season. We've only won 1 on the road each of the last 3 seasons so I'll hope VPI becomes the 1 this year.
In chronological order, I expect a 1-4 start, a 2 game winning streak to get to 3-4, and a 1-4 limp to the finish line.