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2022 Season
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<blockquote data-quote="GTNavyNuke" data-source="post: 862868" data-attributes="member: 322"><p>It's hard to see a team which is below average in defense and pitching making it very far in the postseason; that's why last year few of us had much hope of going deep in the NCAAs last year. This year D1 Baseball above is guessing we have average pitching and below average defense. Based on past year performance, I think that is fair. I hope for better but have no OQE to support it. </p><p></p><p>I've been trying to figure out how important defense is relative to pitching. We all have anecdotes about defense losing games but how many games are influenced by defense. But is there some numerical OQE that can be developed?</p><p></p><p>My attempt was to look at last years NCAA D1 baseball data for all teams. I calculated the unearned runs per game (=total runs less earned runs) and then compared it to ERA. What I see is that the average team gives up on the order of 85% of their runs as earned and 15% as unearned. So defense is important, but maybe 1/5th of what pitching is. And offense is the other ingredient for winning games, but that is a separate discussion.</p><p></p><p>For all 286 D1 teams last year:</p><p>[ATTACH=full]12036[/ATTACH] </p><p></p><p>And more importantly for the ACC where we play most of our games. I put in the labels for the outliers and in the chart sorted by total runs per game. </p><p>[ATTACH=full]12035[/ATTACH]</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GTNavyNuke, post: 862868, member: 322"] It's hard to see a team which is below average in defense and pitching making it very far in the postseason; that's why last year few of us had much hope of going deep in the NCAAs last year. This year D1 Baseball above is guessing we have average pitching and below average defense. Based on past year performance, I think that is fair. I hope for better but have no OQE to support it. I've been trying to figure out how important defense is relative to pitching. We all have anecdotes about defense losing games but how many games are influenced by defense. But is there some numerical OQE that can be developed? My attempt was to look at last years NCAA D1 baseball data for all teams. I calculated the unearned runs per game (=total runs less earned runs) and then compared it to ERA. What I see is that the average team gives up on the order of 85% of their runs as earned and 15% as unearned. So defense is important, but maybe 1/5th of what pitching is. And offense is the other ingredient for winning games, but that is a separate discussion. For all 286 D1 teams last year: [ATTACH type="full"]12036[/ATTACH] And more importantly for the ACC where we play most of our games. I put in the labels for the outliers and in the chart sorted by total runs per game. [ATTACH type="full"]12035[/ATTACH] [/QUOTE]
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