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2021 stats year in review
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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 857851" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>How'd we do in scoring (offense and defense)?</p><p></p><p>Here's Expected (Predicted) Points added. <strong>Expected Points Added (EPA)</strong> uses <a href="https://collegefootballdata.com/glossary#ExpectedPoints" target="_blank">Expected Points</a> to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40). <strong>Passing Downs</strong> are defined as 2nd downs with 7 or more yards to go or 3rd and 4th downs with 5 or more yards to go. Rushing downs are the downs that aren't passing downs <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite2" alt=";)" title="Wink ;)" loading="lazy" data-shortname=";)" /></p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th></th><th>Offense</th><th>Defense</th></tr><tr><td>All</td><td>0.129</td><td><strong>0.304</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Rushing</td><td>0.102</td><td>0.112</td></tr><tr><td>Passing</td><td>0.174</td><td><strong>0.563</strong></td></tr></table><p></p><p>We gave up a ton of points. Let's compare to success rate. </p><p><strong>Success Rate</strong> is an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">the offense scored</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">1st downs which gain at least 50% of the yards to go</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">2nd downs which gain at least 70% of the yards to go</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">3rd and 4th downs which gain at least 100% of the yards to go</li> </ul><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th></th><th>Offense</th><th>Defense</th></tr><tr><td>All</td><td>40%</td><td><strong>47%</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Standard Downs</td><td>47%</td><td>51%</td></tr><tr><td>Passing Downs</td><td><strong>24%</strong></td><td>37%</td></tr></table><p></p><p>I guess we had a "break but don't bend" philosophy on passing downs. We either stopped you or we got burned bigtime. From another chart (not shown here), our run defense looks better because our passing defense was so weak. </p><p></p><p>Also, if we got behind the chains, we were shafted. The 24% on offensive passing downs translates to "our offense was not built for 3rd or 4th and long". </p><p></p><p>How did our offense stack up compared to the rest of the conference?</p><p></p><p style="text-align: center"><u><strong>Success Rate (x) vs Expected Points <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/thumbsup.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt="(y)" title="Thumbs Up (y)" data-shortname="(y)" /> Offense</strong></u></p><p>[ATTACH=full]11910[/ATTACH]</p><p>Yeeeesh. We weren't efficient at keeping ahead of the chains (horizontal axis) or scoring (vertical axis). Congrats UVA--you really rocked on offense. </p><p></p><p>Same on defense</p><p style="text-align: center"><u><strong>Success Rate (x) vs Expected Points <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/thumbsup.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt="(y)" title="Thumbs Up (y)" data-shortname="(y)" /> Defense</strong></u></p><p>[ATTACH=full]11911[/ATTACH]</p><p>OK, you REALLY REALLY don't want to be in the upper right. Duke, UVA, and GT REALLY REALLY couldn't get off the field or stop their opponents from scoring. Keeping the opponents from getting first downs was probably a slightly bigger deal than giving up points, but they go hand in glove. Congrats to NCST and Clemson for having great defenses. Pitt looking good there, too.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 857851, member: 282"] How'd we do in scoring (offense and defense)? Here's Expected (Predicted) Points added. [B]Expected Points Added (EPA)[/B] uses [URL='https://collegefootballdata.com/glossary#ExpectedPoints']Expected Points[/URL] to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40). [B]Passing Downs[/B] are defined as 2nd downs with 7 or more yards to go or 3rd and 4th downs with 5 or more yards to go. Rushing downs are the downs that aren't passing downs ;) [TABLE] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH]Offense[/TH] [TH]Defense[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]All[/TD] [TD]0.129[/TD] [TD][B]0.304[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rushing[/TD] [TD]0.102[/TD] [TD]0.112[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Passing[/TD] [TD]0.174[/TD] [TD][B]0.563[/B][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] We gave up a ton of points. Let's compare to success rate. [B]Success Rate[/B] is an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria: [LIST] [*]the offense scored [*]1st downs which gain at least 50% of the yards to go [*]2nd downs which gain at least 70% of the yards to go [*]3rd and 4th downs which gain at least 100% of the yards to go [/LIST] [TABLE] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH]Offense[/TH] [TH]Defense[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]All[/TD] [TD]40%[/TD] [TD][B]47%[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Standard Downs[/TD] [TD]47%[/TD] [TD]51%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Passing Downs[/TD] [TD][B]24%[/B][/TD] [TD]37%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I guess we had a "break but don't bend" philosophy on passing downs. We either stopped you or we got burned bigtime. From another chart (not shown here), our run defense looks better because our passing defense was so weak. Also, if we got behind the chains, we were shafted. The 24% on offensive passing downs translates to "our offense was not built for 3rd or 4th and long". How did our offense stack up compared to the rest of the conference? [CENTER][U][B]Success Rate (x) vs Expected Points (y) Offense[/B][/U][/CENTER] [ATTACH type="full"]11910[/ATTACH] Yeeeesh. We weren't efficient at keeping ahead of the chains (horizontal axis) or scoring (vertical axis). Congrats UVA--you really rocked on offense. Same on defense [CENTER][U][B]Success Rate (x) vs Expected Points (y) Defense[/B][/U][/CENTER] [ATTACH type="full"]11911[/ATTACH] OK, you REALLY REALLY don't want to be in the upper right. Duke, UVA, and GT REALLY REALLY couldn't get off the field or stop their opponents from scoring. Keeping the opponents from getting first downs was probably a slightly bigger deal than giving up points, but they go hand in glove. Congrats to NCST and Clemson for having great defenses. Pitt looking good there, too. [/QUOTE]
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