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<blockquote data-quote="GTNavyNuke" data-source="post: 796764" data-attributes="member: 322"><p>This year's draft is going to be really hard to predict since there is such a backlog from only having 5 rounds last year.</p><p></p><p>Here are the major factors I think about when guessing on the draft:</p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Whether a player is eligible (duh).</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Years of eligibility left. <ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><p style="margin-left: 20px">If it's one year and they are drafted, they should take the draft offer usually. If it's one year and they aren't drafted, they often should negotiate for the best they can get. When they have no years left, they are at the mercy of the merciless.</p> </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><p style="margin-left: 20px">If it's two or more years, wait and hope for improvement unless it's a really high draft slot. Like Parada will get.</p> </li> </ol></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">How old the player is. Older means less potential ceiling and thus less money / lower draft slot. Colin Hall is a case to consider. He will be 22 1/2 for this year's draft with a year eligibility left. At that age, I'd think he is too old to project a lot higher in 2022. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Special considerations for having a much better season the next year. Like a pitcher coming off TJ.</li> </ol><p></p><p>For our team, there is going to be a lot of angst next year. But our incoming class is probably better, especially for pitching, than what we are losing. </p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">We started with 45 players on the roster this year and 15 are gong to be draft eligible. But 5 of those 15 have 2 years after this year of eligibility. So really only 10 are fairly sure to go.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">We have 15 commits. Assume we get 10 of them (Ford drafted and 4 go somewhere else to get playing time or are drafted). Ford would be crazy to come to GT if he can be 22nd in the draft. That is great and doubtful he would move up and could move down if he came to GT. But if he doesn't get that high an offer we could well see him.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">So we will have to "cut" about 10 players from this year's roster (= 45 - 35 allowed 2022 roster + 10 drafted or leave - 10 2022 commits arriving). Guys who haven't played this year or aren't playing now (other than injury like Finley) are at high cut risk.</li> </ul><p>Of these you asked about, "Archer, Crawford, Roedig, Huff, Chapman, Turley, Hall, Wilhite, Medich", </p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Archer, RS Jr, last year probably goes, possibly undrafted</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Crawford, RS So, stays</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Roedig, So stays</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Huff, So stays</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Chapman, Jr, last year probably goes, possibly undrafted</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Turley, Jr, goes. No playing time. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Hall, Jr probably goes. Doesn't have stats and older.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Wilhite, Sr. Goes on lowball offer since last year.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Medich, Grad, Not drafted, doesn't have stats.</li> </ul></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GTNavyNuke, post: 796764, member: 322"] This year's draft is going to be really hard to predict since there is such a backlog from only having 5 rounds last year. Here are the major factors I think about when guessing on the draft: [LIST=1] [*]Whether a player is eligible (duh). [*]Years of eligibility left. [LIST=1] [*][INDENT]If it's one year and they are drafted, they should take the draft offer usually. If it's one year and they aren't drafted, they often should negotiate for the best they can get. When they have no years left, they are at the mercy of the merciless.[/INDENT] [*][INDENT]If it's two or more years, wait and hope for improvement unless it's a really high draft slot. Like Parada will get.[/INDENT] [/LIST] [*]How old the player is. Older means less potential ceiling and thus less money / lower draft slot. Colin Hall is a case to consider. He will be 22 1/2 for this year's draft with a year eligibility left. At that age, I'd think he is too old to project a lot higher in 2022. [*]Special considerations for having a much better season the next year. Like a pitcher coming off TJ. [/LIST] For our team, there is going to be a lot of angst next year. But our incoming class is probably better, especially for pitching, than what we are losing. [LIST] [*]We started with 45 players on the roster this year and 15 are gong to be draft eligible. But 5 of those 15 have 2 years after this year of eligibility. So really only 10 are fairly sure to go. [*]We have 15 commits. Assume we get 10 of them (Ford drafted and 4 go somewhere else to get playing time or are drafted). Ford would be crazy to come to GT if he can be 22nd in the draft. That is great and doubtful he would move up and could move down if he came to GT. But if he doesn't get that high an offer we could well see him. [*]So we will have to "cut" about 10 players from this year's roster (= 45 - 35 allowed 2022 roster + 10 drafted or leave - 10 2022 commits arriving). Guys who haven't played this year or aren't playing now (other than injury like Finley) are at high cut risk. [/LIST] Of these you asked about, "Archer, Crawford, Roedig, Huff, Chapman, Turley, Hall, Wilhite, Medich", [LIST] [*]Archer, RS Jr, last year probably goes, possibly undrafted [*]Crawford, RS So, stays [*]Roedig, So stays [*]Huff, So stays [*]Chapman, Jr, last year probably goes, possibly undrafted [*]Turley, Jr, goes. No playing time. [*]Hall, Jr probably goes. Doesn't have stats and older. [*]Wilhite, Sr. Goes on lowball offer since last year. [*]Medich, Grad, Not drafted, doesn't have stats. [/LIST] [/QUOTE]
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