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2019 FEI and PPD Data
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<blockquote data-quote="AE 87" data-source="post: 651507" data-attributes="member: 195"><p>No worries. I don't want to drag this out, but let me just say a couple more things.</p><p></p><p>1) I don't understand how you distinguish between "a legitimate ranking system" and a ranking of "team strength." As I see it, as soon as you incorporate strength of schedule you're ranking something other than simply wins and losses. What is that if not a ranking of team strength? In my opinion, all ranking systems are trying to rank best to worst teams.</p><p></p><p>2) While I appreciate the impulse to press for wins and losses against any stat, I'm actually not sure it completely applies in this case. As you say, "the ultimate goal of the game is to win," but a team achieves that goal by scoring more points than it allows. Indeed, typically that means its offense scores more points than its defense allows. Since games can vary widely in number of drives, points/drive is a better relative measure of team strength than total points. </p><p></p><p>3) Again, if the goal is to rank teams best to worst, I question the value of W-L given that some wins and losses may not be strong indicators of which team is better. For example, in our win against d'oh U, we scored a TD on a strip sack. We average 1.5 sacks/game against conference opponents, 13th in the conference. So, was that win really an indicator of which team was better?</p><p> </p><p>4) I've been doing these for several years, and the correlation with the traditional polling rankings are pretty good. So, it seems to me that the contribution of special teams are often cooked into the scoring efficiency numbers. FGs count in offensive efficiency. FG defense counts in defense efficiency. Punting contributes to def efficiency by making for longer drives. Punt Return contributes to offensive efficiency by making shorter drives.</p><p></p><p>Here's a comparison from the end of last year:</p><p>[ATTACH=full]7076[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><p>I think it's an interesting conversation where the 9-4 Texas A&M is ranked 16 by the polls but falls out of the top 25 to #28 by PPD while the 9-4 Penn St is ranked 17 by the polls but goes up to either 11 or 5 by PPD. Are the pollsters' take on strength of schedule that much more accurate or just more biased? You see a similar thing comparing 10-3 LSU with 10-3 Michigan.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="AE 87, post: 651507, member: 195"] No worries. I don't want to drag this out, but let me just say a couple more things. 1) I don't understand how you distinguish between "a legitimate ranking system" and a ranking of "team strength." As I see it, as soon as you incorporate strength of schedule you're ranking something other than simply wins and losses. What is that if not a ranking of team strength? In my opinion, all ranking systems are trying to rank best to worst teams. 2) While I appreciate the impulse to press for wins and losses against any stat, I'm actually not sure it completely applies in this case. As you say, "the ultimate goal of the game is to win," but a team achieves that goal by scoring more points than it allows. Indeed, typically that means its offense scores more points than its defense allows. Since games can vary widely in number of drives, points/drive is a better relative measure of team strength than total points. 3) Again, if the goal is to rank teams best to worst, I question the value of W-L given that some wins and losses may not be strong indicators of which team is better. For example, in our win against d'oh U, we scored a TD on a strip sack. We average 1.5 sacks/game against conference opponents, 13th in the conference. So, was that win really an indicator of which team was better? 4) I've been doing these for several years, and the correlation with the traditional polling rankings are pretty good. So, it seems to me that the contribution of special teams are often cooked into the scoring efficiency numbers. FGs count in offensive efficiency. FG defense counts in defense efficiency. Punting contributes to def efficiency by making for longer drives. Punt Return contributes to offensive efficiency by making shorter drives. Here's a comparison from the end of last year: [ATTACH=full]7076[/ATTACH] I think it's an interesting conversation where the 9-4 Texas A&M is ranked 16 by the polls but falls out of the top 25 to #28 by PPD while the 9-4 Penn St is ranked 17 by the polls but goes up to either 11 or 5 by PPD. Are the pollsters' take on strength of schedule that much more accurate or just more biased? You see a similar thing comparing 10-3 LSU with 10-3 Michigan. [/QUOTE]
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