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<blockquote data-quote="FredJacket" data-source="post: 303692" data-attributes="member: 2843"><p>Adjusting my own expectations (really... my hope/desire, now)... the path to "make" the ACC Tournament. It hurts to even have to write that. However...making the conference tournament needs to be important. Recall the tournament field is 12 teams this year. Only 2 teams won't make it. As we sit now... Tech is firmly out.</p><p></p><p>BC seems destined to finish last in the conference. Using twisted logic, I am relieved we do not have BC on our schedule. At this point, I think I'd rather leave it up to other teams to keep them behind us in the standings. Those teams are Duke, NCST, Miami, WF, & ND. </p><p></p><p>We have 4 wins. Man, that's still hard to believe. The 3 teams just ahead of us in the conference...each with 6 wins: VT, Duke, Pittsburgh. All of them in the Coastal and we have yet to play any of them. So... we do control some of our destiny in that regard. Just need to pass ONE of them to get into the tournament.</p><p></p><p>Pitt: I give us the best chance at passing Pitt. Translation: I see Pitt struggling the most with their remaining schedule. Here are their final 5 series: Miami, UNC, @GT, NCST, @WF. </p><p>VT: Feel pretty good that VT will struggle with their remaining schedule too. Remaining series: UVA, GT, @NCST, UNC, @MIA.</p><p>Duke: This seems to be the least likely (of these 3) that we will pass. Remaining series: BC, @LOU, @ND, GT, @UNC </p><p></p><p>At the halfway point and 12 teams with at least 6 wins, I will 'project' 11 wins gets you in the tournament. The 13th place team (not in) will finish with 10 wins. The simplest path for Ga Tech to get to 11 wins. Assume (worst case), we are swept by UVA and LOU. Now both of those series are in Atlanta. I have to believe we can scratch out 1 or 2 wins over those 6 games. But for these purposes... let's assume we go 0-6 against them. Means we need to go 7-2 against @VT, Pitt, @Duke. It's also very important to at least win the series against each of these teams... setting up a tiebreaker advantage for the final spot in the tournament should we finish with same records vying for that 12th seed.</p><p></p><p>....ugh.. somebody make me feel better, please. Challenge my assumptions: </p><p>Is 11 wins gonna be the number or can we get there with 10?</p><p>Can we win ONE game in 6 at home v UVA/LOU? </p><p></p><p>Why do I care? I've asked my wife that out loud about 14 times this year while watching/listening to games... not exaggerating. Yet, here I am... wanting something that seems so unlikely now.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="FredJacket, post: 303692, member: 2843"] Adjusting my own expectations (really... my hope/desire, now)... the path to "make" the ACC Tournament. It hurts to even have to write that. However...making the conference tournament needs to be important. Recall the tournament field is 12 teams this year. Only 2 teams won't make it. As we sit now... Tech is firmly out. BC seems destined to finish last in the conference. Using twisted logic, I am relieved we do not have BC on our schedule. At this point, I think I'd rather leave it up to other teams to keep them behind us in the standings. Those teams are Duke, NCST, Miami, WF, & ND. We have 4 wins. Man, that's still hard to believe. The 3 teams just ahead of us in the conference...each with 6 wins: VT, Duke, Pittsburgh. All of them in the Coastal and we have yet to play any of them. So... we do control some of our destiny in that regard. Just need to pass ONE of them to get into the tournament. Pitt: I give us the best chance at passing Pitt. Translation: I see Pitt struggling the most with their remaining schedule. Here are their final 5 series: Miami, UNC, @GT, NCST, @WF. VT: Feel pretty good that VT will struggle with their remaining schedule too. Remaining series: UVA, GT, @NCST, UNC, @MIA. Duke: This seems to be the least likely (of these 3) that we will pass. Remaining series: BC, @LOU, @ND, GT, @UNC At the halfway point and 12 teams with at least 6 wins, I will 'project' 11 wins gets you in the tournament. The 13th place team (not in) will finish with 10 wins. The simplest path for Ga Tech to get to 11 wins. Assume (worst case), we are swept by UVA and LOU. Now both of those series are in Atlanta. I have to believe we can scratch out 1 or 2 wins over those 6 games. But for these purposes... let's assume we go 0-6 against them. Means we need to go 7-2 against @VT, Pitt, @Duke. It's also very important to at least win the series against each of these teams... setting up a tiebreaker advantage for the final spot in the tournament should we finish with same records vying for that 12th seed. ....ugh.. somebody make me feel better, please. Challenge my assumptions: Is 11 wins gonna be the number or can we get there with 10? Can we win ONE game in 6 at home v UVA/LOU? Why do I care? I've asked my wife that out loud about 14 times this year while watching/listening to games... not exaggerating. Yet, here I am... wanting something that seems so unlikely now. [/QUOTE]
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