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The Swarm Lounge
2015 Warmest Year on Record
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<blockquote data-quote="takethepoints" data-source="post: 416931" data-attributes="member: 265"><p>It's like Niels Bohr said: "Prediction is difficult, particularly about the future."</p><p></p><p>If we have to wait for perfect predictions, then we may as well give up science as well as engineering. These are estimates made about stochastic systems that we don't understand very well. Problem = there is one prediction that holds true: things are getting warmer every year. The trend is established. We have a pretty good idea what's behind the trend. If we decide not to do something - and fast - the trend will get more acute. That's really all we need either scientifically or policy-wise to make decisions. What this information doesn't tell us, unfortunately, is all the important stuff: How long do we have? How big are the effects going to be within various time spans? What more could we do? How much will this cost? Without that, it's hard to make a detailed cost-benefit analysis. </p><p></p><p>That's why I called this a bet. I don't like the short side.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="takethepoints, post: 416931, member: 265"] It's like Niels Bohr said: "Prediction is difficult, particularly about the future." If we have to wait for perfect predictions, then we may as well give up science as well as engineering. These are estimates made about stochastic systems that we don't understand very well. Problem = there is one prediction that holds true: things are getting warmer every year. The trend is established. We have a pretty good idea what's behind the trend. If we decide not to do something - and fast - the trend will get more acute. That's really all we need either scientifically or policy-wise to make decisions. What this information doesn't tell us, unfortunately, is all the important stuff: How long do we have? How big are the effects going to be within various time spans? What more could we do? How much will this cost? Without that, it's hard to make a detailed cost-benefit analysis. That's why I called this a bet. I don't like the short side. [/QUOTE]
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