2 SEC Teams in the Playoffs

DTGT

DTGT

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It looks like we are gonna get a 2 SEC team playoff no matter what. What are the implications of that?

First, let's take a look at the math. Let me make an assumption that the null hypothesis is correct: "the odds of an SEC team beating a non-SEC power 5 team are exactly 50%". Using win-loss records since the BCS era began in 1998 and statistics, the null hypothesis has yet to be disproved. Also, assume that they do not match the SEC teams against each other in the semi-final round.

Here are the scenarios for the semi-finals:
SEC 1 - L; SEC 2 - L --> Odds = 25%
SEC 1 - L; SEC 2 - W --> Odds = 25%
SEC 1 - W; SEC 2 - L --> Odds = 25%
SEC 1 - W; SEC 2 - W --> Odds = 25%

The odds that you get at least one SEC team in the final = 75%

Also, with 2 SEC teams in, 2 power 5 conferences are left out. Right now, it is the Big 10 & 12 that are left out; the ACC & PAC-12 are in. If FSU slips at all in perception (might not need an L to knock them out...), they are out and [TCU/Ohio State/Baylor] is in.

The current best scenario for Tech & the ACC is for FSU to win out, Duke to lose in ACCCG, and Tech to finish 10-2 and make it to the Orange Bowl. Why not Duke lose and Tech beat FSU in ACCCG? Because ACC will be left out of the playoffs making in much harder for Tech to get there next year (weak SOS / weak ACC arguments) and Tech goes to the Orange Bowl in either case this year.

The remaining scenarios involve losing to FSU and/or dwags and are all bad: no Orange Bowl and the team falls in the bowl picking order.

We will know tomorrow, with approximately 95% confidence, if we have to play FSU this year.
 
AlabamaBuzz

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DTGT said:
It looks like we are gonna get a 2 SEC team playoff no matter what. What are the implications of that?

First, let's take a look at the math. Let me make an assumption that the null hypothesis is correct: "the odds of an SEC team beating a non-SEC power 5 team are exactly 50%". Using win-loss records since the BCS era began in 1998 and statistics, the null hypothesis has yet to be disproved. Also, assume that they do not match the SEC teams against each other in the semi-final round.

Here are the scenarios for the semi-finals:
SEC 1 - L; SEC 2 - L --> Odds = 25%
SEC 1 - L; SEC 2 - W --> Odds = 25%
SEC 1 - W; SEC 2 - L --> Odds = 25%
SEC 1 - W; SEC 2 - W --> Odds = 25%

The odds that you get at least one SEC team in the final = 75%

Also, with 2 SEC teams in, 2 power 5 conferences are left out. Right now, it is the Big 10 & 12 that are left out; the ACC & PAC-12 are in. If FSU slips at all in perception (might not need an L to knock them out...), they are out and [TCU/Ohio State/Baylor] is in.

The current best scenario for Tech & the ACC is for FSU to win out, Duke to lose in ACCCG, and Tech to finish 10-2 and make it to the Orange Bowl. Why not Duke lose and Tech beat FSU in ACCCG? Because ACC will be left out of the playoffs making in much harder for Tech to get there next year (weak SOS / weak ACC arguments) and Tech goes to the Orange Bowl in either case this year.

The remaining scenarios involve losing to FSU and/or dwags and are all bad: no Orange Bowl and the team falls in the bowl picking order.

We will know tomorrow, with approximately 95% confidence, if we have to play FSU this year.
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I don't think us going to the OB can be assumed if we lose to UGAG. The playoff committee has provided for a way that Clem's Son or L'ville could move ahead of us, and the OB would be required to take one of them. Whether we like to think this or not, UGAG is a very talented team, and us beating them there will be a monumental task, but I hope our guys are up to it!!
 

Oldgoldandwhite

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It is just as likely that we have two teams from the Big 12 in the playoffs. Conference championships games and rivalry games are a crap shoot.
 
DaddyBill

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I think it will be Alabama, Oregon, either TCU or Baylor and, if they win out, the OSU over the FSU. This, of course, would not be good for the ACC. The Criminoles could stay alive with crushing defeats of BC and Florida. But it will be Muschamps' last game as the gator head and he will have nothing to lose so he could play crazy. This, as usual, is just an old man's opinion.
 
Minawreck

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I disagree with your notion that the current best case scenario is not for Tech to beat FSU in the ACC Championship Game and UGA.

I think there exists a scenario where the SEC is left out.
 

Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau

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DaddyBill said:
I think it will be Alabama, Oregon, either TCU or Baylor and, if they win out, the OSU over the FSU. This, of course, would not be good for the ACC. The Criminoles could stay alive with crushing defeats of BC and Florida. But it will be Muschamps' last game as the gator head and he will have nothing to lose so he could play crazy. This, as usual, is just an old man's opinion.
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I consider that to be a distinct possibility, i.e. Gators over Seminoles. Now, on the whole playoff thing. It seems to me that the expansion of the 2 team BCS to four team CFP is going to be more controversial. The final selection of the 4 participants is going to look much more arbitrary than just picking the top two was. To me, there are at least ten or eleven teams that could/should be picked for the last four spots. The committee must choose, but there will be a lot of disgruntled and disappointed people when the deed is done. And rightly so, because no teams have really separated themselves from the pack at all this year. And I think going forward it will be similar. Lots of parity, lots of attrition. And when an SEC darling loses, they don't fall out of the mix? Pure and utter bovine feces.

Hopefully we will see some meaningful match ups from the leftovers in the bowls such as Georgia v. Oregon, Mississippi v Oklahoma, Ohio State v. Arizona State, GT v. Alabama, Michigan State v Auburn
 
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UgaBlows

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Oldgoldandwhite said:
It could occur. Best case would be for us to beat Ugag (miracle) and then Ugag beat Bama (miracle) and MissSt stumble. Wonder how the committee would explain that one away.
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easy, they would put ugag in the playoffs, because obviously if you win the sec you are the best team in college football duh
 
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UgaBlows

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assuming FSU, Bama, Oregon, and Osu win out then i believe they will be the 4. Imo the extra strength of schedule from playing a conf. championship game will give an advantage over the big12 champ who will be left out in the cold
 
Techster

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IF FSU goes undefeated, no way they get left out. No way.

At the end of the day, do you know what kind of crap the playoff committee and the NCAA will have to deal with if the undefeated AND defending national champs get left out of the playoff picture for 2 loss and 1 loss teams? Oh, on top of that, FSU is ranked #1 in both AP and Coaches poll.

Right now the playoff committee is basically just going through the motions and creating debate to stir interest. The only poll that matters is the last poll. IF FSU is still undefeated when that lost poll comes out, they are in the playoffs. You can bank on that.

However, if FSU loses one, all bets are off...and my money is on the ACC getting shut out.
 
SwarmArmy

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Also.. there is another reason for keeping Clemson in the top 25 - to make the SEC look good when USCe beats them in the rivalry game. They're probably hoping Kentucky beats Louisville too, perhaps which is why they are in.

Look for us to move into the top 15 during the bye week, to make UGAg's win (if they beat us) look better.
 
jeffgt14

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Techster said:
IF FSU goes undefeated, no way they get left out. No way.

At the end of the day, do you know what kind of crap the playoff committee and the NCAA will have to deal with if the undefeated AND defending national champs get left out of the playoff picture for 2 loss and 1 loss teams? Oh, on top of that, FSU is ranked #1 in both AP and Coaches poll.

Right now the playoff committee is basically just going through the motions and creating debate to stir interest. The only poll that matters is the last poll. IF FSU is still undefeated when that lost poll comes out, they are in the playoffs. You can bank on that.

However, if FSU loses one, all bets are off...and my money is on the ACC getting shut out.
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They’ll definitely get in but the thing that gets lost is the seeding of teams. If FSU is the only undefeated team at the end of the year they should be #1 and playing the #4 seed.
 

WreckinGT

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Miss St, with one quality win that is looking worse every week, coming off a loss to Bama that wasn't nearly as competitive as the final score, now has the easiest road to the playoffs of any team out there. The power of the SEC.
 

augustabuzz

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The question for me is; if the SEC gets two into the playoffs, do they still get two more into the remaining three playoff level bowls?
 
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