Conference Realignment

[cpf2001]

Read that again: 10 years ago, the Pac-10 and the ACC were getting paid the most from their TV contracts.

But nobody expected that to last, it was a period of crazy rights battles and everyone assumed the next time the SEC or Big 10 renewed they’d leapfrog the ACC. The SEC and Big 10 were able to poach from the Big 12 and ACC for a reason then.

The story nationally about the ACC in 2012 wasn’t that it was on the rise. Clemson was showing flashes but also Clemsoning. FSU, Miami, and VT were shadows of theirselves from a decade earlier. (FSU hadn’t had their Winston title.) The ACC is in trouble because of how those three 90s-power-programs have struggled to consistently play at a high level for 20 years, we were already halfway there at that point and it wasn’t seen as just a blip.

The Big 10 wouldn’t have made GT an overnight contender but the worry is that by being shortsighted then we’ve created existential risk of not being in ANY major league once the ACC blows up. And the ACC blowing up eventually was seen as a possibility even then. The schools aren’t as big, the recent results weren’t as good, and the money race was intensifying. It wasn’t complex math.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

The story nationally about the ACC in 2012 wasn’t that it was on the rise. Clemson was showing flashes but also Clemsoning. FSU, Miami, and VT were shadows of theirselves from a decade earlier. (FSU hadn’t had their Winston title.) The ACC is in trouble because of how those three 90s-power-programs have struggled to consistently play at a high level for 20 years, we were already halfway there at that point and it wasn’t seen as just a blip.

Actually, in 2012, Clemson was coming off their first ACC championship in their current run, in which the beat VT, who ended up with 11 wins, convincingly. VT had just completed a run of 8 straight 10+ win seasons and had won 10+ in11 of their last 13 seasons. FSU had gone 9-4 in 2011 after winning 10 wins in 2010. VTs struggles did start in 2012, but FSU wouldn't struggle again until 2017. Clemson has finished in the CFP top 10 every year except 2014, 2019 and 2023. They have finished in the AP top 25 every year since 2011.

 

[iceeater1969]

This.

With so many things in college football, it's easy to look at it through the retrospective lens we have today, rather than the blurry lens turned towards the future we had at the time.

Case in point: Everyone talks about how dominant FSU was last year (and they were). But they also conveniently neglect to report the 8 years prior to that, when FSU wasn't doing anything. Same goes for Clemson. It's assumed that FSU and Clemson have always been "blue bloods," because of their performance during a select time period. But that's only if you look at a specific time period, and the story drummed up by the media during and since. (FSU, granted, has a longer story of success when compared to Clemson. But I still say that the past almost 10 years shows that things can change, and rapidly. All it takes is a miracle on North Avenue to set the events in motion.)

Back to the fallacy of retrospect, same goes for our turning down the Big 10. At the time, the ACC was on the rise - in fact, when we signed our ESPN deal in 2013, we then had the most lucrative TV deal on the books at the time. (We displaced the Pac-10, who had previously had the most lucrative deal).

Read that again: 10 years ago, the Pac-10 and the ACC were getting paid the most from their TV contracts.

Bottom line: things change. They always have, they always will. And to look back at an event 12 years ago without considering how much was fundamentally different at the time is ludicrous.

(And by the same token, looking to the future based on things that have happened in the past is also somewhat ludicrous. Past performance is not prescriptive of future returns. Just ask Nebraska and Miami about that one.)

NCAA finance on Knight Data base. $
The pre acc network w espn , the SEC made a billion a year more in tv revenue.
THEY WERE LEAVING US IN THE DIRT.
True the accn deal got us even for a very brief period.

But very soon ESPN AND SEC greatly increased their tv revenue. Then SEC continued to leave acc in dirt at about 3/4 billion a year.

 

[Techster]

But nobody expected that to last, it was a period of crazy rights battles and everyone assumed the next time the SEC or Big 10 renewed they’d leapfrog the ACC. The SEC and Big 10 were able to poach from the Big 12 and ACC for a reason then.

The main ACC media contract payout per member was not bigger than the main media contract for B1G schools at the time...PAC 12 (then PAC 10) actually held the distinction of highest per member payout for the "main" media contract. By a smidge.

Where will TV take realignment?

With 2013 setting up to be another critical year of conference reshuffling, here's a look at where we stand as far as what matters most to the people in charge: conference TV deals.

www.sbnation.com

That's not including the B1G Network payout at the time. B1G was the first conference with its own network, and it was started in 2006.

Pete Thamel: Maryland in line for mammoth financial bump in wake of Big Ten jump

The University of Maryland stands to make nearly $100 million more in conference revenue by 2020 with its switch from the ACC to the Big Ten, according to

www.si.com

If you want to know the reason Maryland, a founding ACC member, was happy to PAY THE ACC tens of millions to leave the ACC, there you go.

I also have some thoughts after re-reading some of these posts trying to refute the points for GT going to the B1G. Got rush to a dinner appointment first.

 

[RonJohn]

NCAA finance on Knight Data base. $
The pre acc network w espn , the SEC made a billion a year more in tv revenue.
THEY WERE LEAVING US IN THE DIRT.
True the accn deal got us even for a very brief period.

But very soon ESPN AND SEC greatly increased their tv revenue. Then SEC continued to leave acc in dirt at about 3/4 billion a year.

The SEC didn't make a billion per year in 2022, much less a billion more than the ACC. The per team payout in 2022 for the SEC was $49.9 million, a total of about $700 million. The ACC payout in 2022 was $39.4 million per team, a total of about $550 million. That isn't pre-ACCN, but the SEC media revenue is still not even at $1 billion. I am not sure what numbers you are trying to present.

 

[TooTall]

I think all the wrong thinking people are right.

 

[cpf2001]

Actually, in 2012, Clemson was coming off their first ACC championship in their current run, in which the beat VT, who ended up with 11 wins, convincingly. VT had just completed a run of 8 straight 10+ win seasons and had won 10+ in11 of their last 13 seasons. FSU had gone 9-4 in 2011 after winning 10 wins in 2010. VTs struggles did start in 2012, but FSU wouldn't struggle again until 2017. Clemson has finished in the CFP top 10 every year except 2014, 2019 and 2023. They have finished in the AP top 25 every year since 2011.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/320040228/west-virginia-clemson “Clemsoning” was basically at it’s peak in 2012 for non-ACC fans. They weren’t taken that seriously as a title threat for a couple more years.

You’re right about when VT fell off, though.

 

[JacketOff]

If you want to know the reason Maryland, a founding ACC member, was happy to PAY THE ACC tens of millions to leave the ACC, there you go.

What exactly does Maryland have to show for themselves since the move? Nothing. Not a damn thing. All that happened was administrators and coaches got a raise, and they probably built some new facilities. They are in no way more competitive, or relevant, now than they were in the ACC. They’ve yet to have a winning conference record in the B1G, and have failed to win more than 7 regular season games since the move. They’ve also been irrelevant in their best sport: basketball.

 

[cpf2001]

What Maryland has to show for themselves is a whole lot less worry about if they’ll find a home at all after the ACC implodes.

If not for that I’d be more sanguine about turning it down then.

 

[RonJohn]

They’ve also been irrelevant in their best sport: basketball.

I think GT would be happy to be irrelevant in basketball if your definition of "irrelevant" is making the NCAA tournament 9 of the last 11 years.

With respect to football, they did have a large scandal regarding an in practice death of a player in the middle of the time period in the Big 10. I don't think that the conference they are in is to blame for their issues.

 

[JacketOff]

I think GT would be happy to be irrelevant in basketball if your definition of "irrelevant" is making the NCAA tournament 9 of the last 11 years.

With respect to football, they did have a large scandal regarding an in practice death of a player in the middle of the time period in the Big 10. I don't think that the conference they are in is to blame for their issues.

What are you talking about? Maryland has made the tournament 6 times since joining the B1G in basketball. And you’re talking about a program that made the tournament 14 out of 17 years, including 11 in a row and a natty the last 20 years of being in the ACC. Their basketball standards are totally different from GT’s.

In regards to football, all of that extra B1G money should be helping negate their misfortune, right? Appears it hasn’t done much of anything.

 

[CEB]

What exactly does Maryland have to show for themselves since the move? Nothing. Not a damn thing. All that happened was administrators and coaches got a raise, and they probably built some new facilities. They are in no way more competitive, or relevant, now than they were in the ACC. They’ve yet to have a winning conference record in the B1G, and have failed to win more than 7 regular season games since the move. They’ve also been irrelevant in their best sport: basketball.

As I recall, Maryland was also about to gut their athletics department. They were faced with ending several “non-revenue” sports programs. Their move to the BIG kept them afloat. I have no idea if they ultimately cut the programs or not, but that was part of the discussion when it was all going down.
For several schools it may come down to choosing between competitive or profitable. Having both may not be in the cards for some.

 

[RonJohn]

What are you talking about? Maryland has made the tournament 6 times since joining the B1G in basketball. And you’re talking about a program that made the tournament 14 out of 17 years, including 11 in a row and a natty the last 20 years of being in the ACC. Their basketball standards are totally different from GT’s.

In regards to football, all of that extra B1G money should be helping negate their misfortune, right? Appears it hasn’t done much of anything.

OK, so it is 6 out of 8 instead of 9 out of 11.(excluding 2020 since there was no tournament) Go back the last four years in the ACC and it would be 6 out of 12. Their last 20 years in the ACC, they made the tournament 13 times out of 20. Their last 10 years in the ACC, they made the tournament a total of 3 times. They have been in the Big10 for 9 years. They were in first place in 2020 and would have made the tournament that year. So doing a direct comparison for the last nine years in the ACC vs the first nine years in the Big10 -- ACC 3 times out of 9 years -- Big10 7 times out of 9 years. Basketball has been fine, even if you can't see it. As I said, most GT fans would be very happy if GT basketball had been in 6 of the last 8 NCAA tournaments.

If killing a player is considered a simple "misfortune" in your eyes, then I would say that we will never agree on anything.

 

[UgaBlows]

As I recall, Maryland was also about to gut their athletics department. They were faced with ending several “non-revenue” sports programs. Their move to the BIG kept them afloat. I have no idea if they ultimately cut the programs or not, but that was part of the discussion when it was all going down.
For several schools it may come down to choosing between competitive or profitable. Having both may not be in the cards for some.

Correct, their debt situation was similar to ours- bad. I suspect that they are in much better shape now.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

To equate Maryland with GT is laughable. Maryland is in a stable, money producing conference in a part of the country that could care less about college football. Yet they have been above .500 with three bowl wins in a row. As mentioned, all their other sports programs have been stabilized with the BIG money.

Meanwhile, GT is cash strapped in a conference who is suing its own members who just had their undefeated champion laughed at by the committee. GT has more potential than Maryland but it’s been that way for decades and GT is the one who has done nothing. Maryland and GT are both handout recipients with the difference being the folks who run Maryland were smarter to get a bigger check. GT doesn’t even know if they’ll be getting a check in the future. GT fans will awake one day to how badly we screwed up when we lose our coaches to smarter schools. But at least for the time being we can enjoy our upswing in on field success, but we all know we don’t have the money to sustain it because we will be poached.

 

[yeti92]

To equate Maryland with GT is laughable. Maryland is in a stable, money producing conference in a part of the country that could care less about college football. Yet they have been above .500 with three bowl wins in a row. As mentioned, all their other sports programs have been stabilized with the BIG money.

Meanwhile, GT is cash strapped in a conference who is suing its own members who just had their undefeated champion laughed at by the committee. GT has more potential than Maryland but it’s been that way for decades and GT is the one who has done nothing. Maryland and GT are both handout recipients with the difference being the folks who run Maryland were smarter to get a bigger check. GT doesn’t even know if they’ll be getting a check in the future. GT fans will awake one day to how badly we screwed up when we lose our coaches to smarter schools. But at least for the time being we can enjoy our upswing in on field success, but we all know we don’t have the money to sustain it because we will be poached.

That's hilarious that you think being in the BIG makes a school's coaches unpoachable. If only someone had let Purdue know before lil ole acc member Louisville took Brohm from them!

 

[CEB]

To equate Maryland with GT is laughable. Maryland is in a stable, money producing conference in a part of the country that could care less about college football. Yet they have been above .500 with three bowl wins in a row. As mentioned, all their other sports programs have been stabilized with the BIG money.

Meanwhile, GT is cash strapped in a conference who is suing its own members who just had their undefeated champion laughed at by the committee. GT has more potential than Maryland but it’s been that way for decades and GT is the one who has done nothing. Maryland and GT are both handout recipients with the difference being the folks who run Maryland were smarter to get a bigger check. GT doesn’t even know if they’ll be getting a check in the future. GT fans will awake one day to how badly we screwed up when we lose our coaches to smarter schools. But at least for the time being we can enjoy our upswing in on field success, but we all know we don’t have the money to sustain it because we will be poached.

Dang man… I’m sorry.
I hope you aren’t around any sharp objects. If you are, I hope you miss those points too.

 

[slugboy]

Let me know if this share works for some of you

https://theathletic.com/5465774/202...suits-realignment/?source=user_shared_article The ACC vs. Florida State and Clemson: The courtroom clash on which realignment’s future hangs

The best quote I’ve seen on the FSU and Clemson legal approach is “what you don’t ask for, you don’t get”. Some posts have said that FSU must have a good case, because they have a good firm representing them—the lawyer’s response here implies that it’s not strong, but what have you got to lose by trying?

The article also casts doubt on whether the B1G and SEC really have a “full share” appetite for FSU and Clemson.

One quote does lean in on everything getting blown up—maybe there’s room for FSU and Clemson in a super conference that doesn’t include Vandy, but that means the P4 get blown up.

EDIT: apparently, the Athletic share links aren’t “gift links”. It’s paywalled

 

[Randy Carson]

I dunno that this will change our eventual conference home, but apparently, Tech is one of the "New Ivies".

Time to dust off my blazer and join a barbershop quartet.

And...how did Duke not make this list? Boston College did.

 

[Techster]

I dunno that this will change our eventual conference home, but apparently, Tech is one of the "New Ivies".

Time to dust off my blazer and join a barbershop quartet.

And...how did Duke not make this list? Boston College did.

Good representation from ACC and B1G schools. NM