Conference Realignment

L41k18

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stinger78 said:
First, provide me your definition of strong. No moving goalposts.
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1. Tech won the Natty
2. Clemson won a New Years Day bowl game back when they meant something
3. 2 of the final poll top 10 were ACC teams
4. The ACC had 3 concensus All Americans.

All 4 of those together says "strong conference" to me.

I have no idea what your "moving the goal posts" comment means but it was quite unnecessary.
 
stinger78

stinger78

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L41k18 said:
1. Tech won the Natty
2. Clemson won a New Years Day bowl game back when they meant something
3. 2 of the final poll top 10 were ACC teams
4. The ACC had 3 concensus All Americans.

All 4 of those together says "strong conference" to me.

I have no idea what your "moving the goal posts" comment means but it was quite unnecessary.
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Not meant personally. Please don’t take it so. Most discussions of this type end up moving goalposts and are pointless.

I would say your definition of a strong conference is rather “elevated.” By your definition only one can be strong per year. I will not discuss further.
 

Richard7125

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having multiple teams that are national championship contenders tends to indicate when conferences are having a strong year. Look at this year, the winners of the Big10 championship game (Mich v OSU), SEC Championship (UGA v Bama), and Pac12 (Wash v Ore) were all getting into the playoffs. Had Louisville beaten FSU or Ok St beaten Texas neither of those teams were getting into the playoffs.
 

CEB

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Richard7125 said:
having multiple teams that are national championship contenders tends to indicate when conferences are having a strong year. Look at this year, the winners of the Big10 championship game (Mich v OSU), SEC Championship (UGA v Bama), and Pac12 (Wash v Ore) were all getting into the playoffs. Had Louisville beaten FSU or Ok St beaten Texas neither of those teams were getting into the playoffs.
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Sort of…
Or it indicates that a couple of teams are having a strong year… or it could indicate that the rest of the conference is “down” that year….
I really think it simply indicates that more than one team has avoided the upset / letdown. Having two undefeated teams avoid each other through regular season AND avoid an upset loss to someone else is a big feat. Avoiding that loss used to count for something…

Honestly, in a 4 team playoff format, there are probably 12-15 teams that have a legit shot to win two games. Several of those teams may have two losses because they actually matched up with tough teams in their conference.
Now that we have a 12 team playoff, we get to test that theory. But we already know that they will push that theory in the selection process…we have already been primed to accept “quality losses” in that regard.
 

L41k18

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Techwood Relict

Techwood Relict

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L41k18 said:
I know absolutely nothing about business or contract law, but they may have something there. The Raycom thing always stunk of nepotism.
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It looks like some of the lawyers are finally reading the details. Swofford has some exposure bc of the son's role at Raycom.

Not a good time to be making father/son nepotism headlines in the current news cycle.....

That said, it does follow a general rule, when your case stinks, attack the principle(s).
 
roadkill

roadkill

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L41k18 said:
I know absolutely nothing about business or contract law, but they may have something there. The Raycom thing always stunk of nepotism.
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I'm hoping others on this board with more knowledge of tier 2 and 3 media deals can chime in, but it seems to me that FSU will have a hard time proving a loss because of the Raycom arrangement. Swofford's nepotism has been a known issue, but that in itself doesn't prove harm.
 
RonJohn

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Techwood Relict said:
That said, it does follow a general rule, when your case stinks, attack the principle(s).
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I am not a lawyer, and I haven't read thru the new FSU filing. However, just the coverage of the new filing makes it sound like they are trying harder to become a PIA than they are to actually win the lawsuit. Apparently they are demanding that the ACC/ESPN contract be made public. Once again, I have to ask what the end game is. Will Fox and/or ESPN welcome them to a new conference if they throw a hissy fit and make confidential media documents public when they aren't 100% happy? Will the Big10 or SEC welcome them as a "partner"?
 
stinger78

stinger78

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RonJohn said:
I am not a lawyer, and I haven't read thru the new FSU filing. However, just the coverage of the new filing makes it sound like they are trying harder to become a PIA than they are to actually win the lawsuit. Apparently they are demanding that the ACC/ESPN contract be made public. Once again, I have to ask what the end game is. Will Fox and/or ESPN welcome them to a new conference if they throw a hissy fit and make confidential media documents public when they aren't 100% happy? Will the Big10 or SEC welcome them as a "partner"?
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Quick answer: No.

I fail to see their end game, unless they have an offer in hand and have been told to exit in any way they can.

ETA: The only possible reason for these actions that I can conceive is they are trying to influence ESPN against exercising their option to renew the GOR in 2027, thus allowing FSU to exit at that time.
 
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Northeast Stinger

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As long as this conversation has been going on about FSU’s lawsuit it seems kind of telling that no one has a clear idea what they are trying to accomplish. Other than, we are making it abundantly clear that we hate this conference, hate how it’s managed and want out of it in the worst possible way, so are you sure you really want to hang onto us as a member?
 

WreckinGT

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Im not sure what you guys are confused about. Their end game is to get out of the ACC as soon as possible for as cheap as possible and join either the SEC or the Big 10. What other goal would you think they have?
 
Northeast Stinger

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WreckinGT said:
Im not sure what you guys are confused about. Their end game is to get out of the ACC as soon as possible for as cheap as possible and join either the SEC or the Big 10. What other goal would you think they have?
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It’s the strategy that doesn’t make sense. On paper it’s a non-starter. That’s why most are baffled and some are looking for some clue of three dimensional chess.
 

WreckinGT

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Northeast Stinger said:
It’s the strategy that doesn’t make sense. On paper it’s a non-starter. That’s why most are baffled and some are looking for some clue of three dimensional chess.
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The strategy makes sense if one, they already have an agreement in secret with one of these two conferences (likely in my opinion), or two, they don't have an agreement but are extremely confident they can get one. The second has risk obviously, but the risk is probably worth taking. FSU was the most watched football team in the ACC this year by a wide margin. They are one of the 18 most watched teams in college football over the last 8 years. They have significant value.
 
RonJohn

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WreckinGT said:
Im not sure what you guys are confused about. Their end game is to get out of the ACC as soon as possible for as cheap as possible and join either the SEC or the Big 10. What other goal would you think they have?
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The confusion isn't about where they want to get to. The question is about whether they can get there with their current methods. They are not just burning bridges with the SEC, they are burning bridges with the TV broadcast company. IF they get out now with zero payments for withdrawal or GOR, and they own their media, I am extremely doubtful that either the Big10 nor SEC can provide a full media payout to another team until the current contracts expire in about six years.

The Big10 nor SEC can provide an immediate full payout. Will either the Big10 or SEC overlook the intentional damage that FSU is doing to the ACC and to ESPN? People often say that money causes everything to be overlooked, but that isn't true. I have seen many times where money could be made, but potential partners don't trust others in the agreement.

I don't believe the proposition some have posted that FSU has an offer in hand from the Big10. There are other ACC teams that the Big10 would likely be more interested in. I don't see the Big10 actually making an offer before a team has announced they are leaving their current conference for legal reasons. I don't see the Big10 actually making an offer if they are not certain that they will be able to get the media rights to that team. There could be informal talks, but that leads to the confusion. Why go through all of this without actually knowing where they will end up.

In another post, you say that FSU has significant value. Will ESPN, Fox, NBC or anyone else pay FSU more than $40 million per year in a stand alone deal as an independent? I think that is doubtful. Especially ESPN since FSU is currently in court trying to get confidential ESPN information made public. Will either the Big10 or SEC give FSU a full media payout before the current contracts expire? I think that is doubtful, especially looking at what happened with Washington and Oregon. Those teams are making LESS in media revenue than ACC teams until the next Big10 media contract. Can FSU start a streaming service on their own and make more than $40 million per year? I seriously doubt that. PERCEIVED value doesn't always equal earned revenue.
 

Richard7125

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404
CEB said:
Sort of…
Or it indicates that a couple of teams are having a strong year… or it could indicate that the rest of the conference is “down” that year….
I really think it simply indicates that more than one team has avoided the upset / letdown. Having two undefeated teams avoid each other through regular season AND avoid an upset loss to someone else is a big feat. Avoiding that loss used to count for something…

Honestly, in a 4 team playoff format, there are probably 12-15 teams that have a legit shot to win two games. Several of those teams may have two losses because they actually matched up with tough teams in their conference.
Now that we have a 12 team playoff, we get to test that theory. But we already know that they will push that theory in the selection process…we have already been primed to accept “quality losses” in that regard.
Click to expand...
I don’t agree with 12 to 15 teams being legitimate contenders. I think it’s more like 2 to 3 teams. In the 10 years of the CFP, 80% of the time the finals have been either #1 v #2 or #1 v #3. Interestingly, the one time it featured a #3 vs #4 was UGA v Bama feeding more fuel to the SEC fire.

I’m very happy with the 12 team playoff but that’s more because we will have more meaningful post season games as opposed to thinking the #7 through #12 teams are in the same caliber as teams #1 through #4.
 
stinger78

stinger78

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So, I looked at the strength of schedule list for CFB 2023. Here’s what I found for SECheat teams who form The Greatest Football Conference In The World. I display number of SECheat teams every 5 slots:
1-5: 0
6-10: 2
Top 10 hardest schedules: 2

11-15: 2
16-20: 0
Top 20 hardest schedules: 4/20

21-25: 2
26-30: 1
Top 30 hardest schedules: 7/30

31-35: 1
36-40: 2
Top 40 hardest schedules: 10/40

41-45: 1
46-50: 2
Top 50 hardest schedules: 13/50

At 5 conferences, perfect balance would be 2/10, 4/20, 6/30, 8/40, 10/50. The SECheat, for all it’s purported difficulty, is in perfect balance with the four other conferences through the top 20 most difficult schedules, and pulls ahead only by 1 team in the Top 30 programs.

This would seem to indicate that, if they are a collection of the best, they are not playing each other enough to matter.
 
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