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Writer and Analyst ACC Forecasts
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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 803094" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>We’re not getting 100% odds on those two games—probably something more like 70-80%, which means we’ll start at about 1.5 wins for those two games. Northern Illinois and Kennesaw State aren’t as low on the “gimme” list, also.</p><p>Notre Dame, Clemson, Georgia, North Carolina, and Miami would be heavily favored on this projection. Pitt and Virginia will both be favored at home. Virginia Tech will be favored. So, we’ll be underdogs in 8 out of 12 games.</p><p>In our ACC schedule, we’d be favored over Duke and BC.</p><p>So, it’s figuring on one upset in the list.</p><p>Of the teams in the ACC ranked behind us, we play 2 out of 5. We’re in the wrong division this year. We’re kind of lucky to have BC on the list.</p><p></p><p>Clemson’s schedule is MUCH easier than ours. Their hardest game is UGA, who we also play. They don’t play Miami or Notre Dame. They don’t even play VT.</p><p>However, they lost their Heisman-caliber 4-year starter at QB, plus their best running back who is also a good receiver. They lost Amari Rogers (WR), who was drafted in the first round. One of their starting offensive tackles was drafted in the second round. Another receiver went in the 5th round.</p><p>They’re getting dinged for loss of production. Their offense should still be a nightmare, but it should regress a bit from the last few seasons.</p><p>It would take a loss to UGA and two pretty good upsets to limit them to 9 wins. They’re a lot more “upset-able” than in previous years, though. Their <s>three</s> four biggest upset threats are Pitt (great defense, possibly a 13-10 win), FSU, South Carolina (not seeing it, really), and Louisville. Pitt, FSU, and Louisville are back-to-back.</p><p></p><p>(Edit: I can kind of do math. I originally left out South Carolina from the upset possibilities, but added them later. In a lot of ways, we have a better shot because we play Clemson earlier in the season)</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 803094, member: 282"] We’re not getting 100% odds on those two games—probably something more like 70-80%, which means we’ll start at about 1.5 wins for those two games. Northern Illinois and Kennesaw State aren’t as low on the “gimme” list, also. Notre Dame, Clemson, Georgia, North Carolina, and Miami would be heavily favored on this projection. Pitt and Virginia will both be favored at home. Virginia Tech will be favored. So, we’ll be underdogs in 8 out of 12 games. In our ACC schedule, we’d be favored over Duke and BC. So, it’s figuring on one upset in the list. Of the teams in the ACC ranked behind us, we play 2 out of 5. We’re in the wrong division this year. We’re kind of lucky to have BC on the list. Clemson’s schedule is MUCH easier than ours. Their hardest game is UGA, who we also play. They don’t play Miami or Notre Dame. They don’t even play VT. However, they lost their Heisman-caliber 4-year starter at QB, plus their best running back who is also a good receiver. They lost Amari Rogers (WR), who was drafted in the first round. One of their starting offensive tackles was drafted in the second round. Another receiver went in the 5th round. They’re getting dinged for loss of production. Their offense should still be a nightmare, but it should regress a bit from the last few seasons. It would take a loss to UGA and two pretty good upsets to limit them to 9 wins. They’re a lot more “upset-able” than in previous years, though. Their [s]three[/s] four biggest upset threats are Pitt (great defense, possibly a 13-10 win), FSU, South Carolina (not seeing it, really), and Louisville. Pitt, FSU, and Louisville are back-to-back. (Edit: I can kind of do math. I originally left out South Carolina from the upset possibilities, but added them later. In a lot of ways, we have a better shot because we play Clemson earlier in the season) [/QUOTE]
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