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Why do we expect to beat the "big 4?"
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<blockquote data-quote="GTRX7" data-source="post: 45027" data-attributes="member: 1045"><p>I think the problem you are having is that people don't necessarily agree with many of the assumptions you make in forming your question. First, as I pointed out before (and others), I think many of us disagree with your premise that there is in fact a "huge talent gap." In terms of depth, there probably is a pretty decent gap between GT and the factories, but the gap in terms of starters is not that huge. As I said before, the difference between a 5* and 3* is not a 40% better player. Similarly, the difference between a 10th ranked recruiting class and a 40th ranked class is not 4-fold. We have worse talent, yes. But, I don't think it is a "huge" gap. </p><p></p><p>Second, just because one team is less talented than another, that does not necessarily mean that the less talented team should "always" lose every matchup. It is about statistics. Based on coaching and the talent gap, there is generally a % chance that the less talented team will still win any particular game. Over the long run, that translates into the less talented team winning a certain percentage in the series. Most think we have pretty good (but not great) talent and at least pretty good (very good to some) coaching. Those two things <u>should</u> equal an expectation that GT should win a certain percentage of the time against the factories.</p><p></p><p>In fact, the presumption you seemingly make that the less talented team should always lose is the one that needs to be defended, not that the less talented team should win its share (albiet less than 50% of the time). Now, if you want to rephrase the question and ask why fans here think that we should be winning more than 50% of the time against teams with better talent, I think that would get you to the answers you want. However, I am not sure that many fans do agree that we should expect to win more than 50% of the time against a lot of the factories.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GTRX7, post: 45027, member: 1045"] I think the problem you are having is that people don't necessarily agree with many of the assumptions you make in forming your question. First, as I pointed out before (and others), I think many of us disagree with your premise that there is in fact a "huge talent gap." In terms of depth, there probably is a pretty decent gap between GT and the factories, but the gap in terms of starters is not that huge. As I said before, the difference between a 5* and 3* is not a 40% better player. Similarly, the difference between a 10th ranked recruiting class and a 40th ranked class is not 4-fold. We have worse talent, yes. But, I don't think it is a "huge" gap. Second, just because one team is less talented than another, that does not necessarily mean that the less talented team should "always" lose every matchup. It is about statistics. Based on coaching and the talent gap, there is generally a % chance that the less talented team will still win any particular game. Over the long run, that translates into the less talented team winning a certain percentage in the series. Most think we have pretty good (but not great) talent and at least pretty good (very good to some) coaching. Those two things [U]should[/U] equal an expectation that GT should win a certain percentage of the time against the factories. In fact, the presumption you seemingly make that the less talented team should always lose is the one that needs to be defended, not that the less talented team should win its share (albiet less than 50% of the time). Now, if you want to rephrase the question and ask why fans here think that we should be winning more than 50% of the time against teams with better talent, I think that would get you to the answers you want. However, I am not sure that many fans do agree that we should expect to win more than 50% of the time against a lot of the factories. [/QUOTE]
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Why do we expect to beat the "big 4?"
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